SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY; TRACKING TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS… Hot and humid conditions will persist today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, primarily this afternoon into this evening. One tropical wave, located to our south in the central part of the Gulf of Mexico, may fling in some additional tropical moisture later today into Thursday that could cause rain chances to spike a bit higher. We’re also tracking TD7/Gonzalo in the central Atlantic Ocean. That system is expected to make a run at the Lesser Antilles this weekend where it may be strengthening into a hurricane. High temperatures on this Wednesday will peak in the mid-90s across the area with high (99-104°) heat index values expected this afternoon. Any storms that pop up today likely won’t be severe, but could be on the strong side. Gusty winds, torrential downpours of rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the concerns. Let’s look at your forecast details…
INVEST 91L IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING WEST… The tropical wave that we started tracking last weekend when it was located north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic has quickly moved northwest and is now located in the south-central part of the Gulf of Mexico. This system is now considered “under investigation” and has been branded as INVEST 91L. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a medium (40-50%) chance of becoming a tropical storm as it continues to move west-northwest toward the Texas and Louisiana coast. There is a chance this system flings some deeper Gulf moisture into our local area today and tomorrow. That could potentially increase rain chances at times, although most of the rain and storms both today and tomorrow will likely happen in the afternoon and evening hours per our usual summer pattern. INVEST 91L will likely move onshore in Texas later this week or perhaps on Saturday as a tropical storm or perhaps as just a tropical wave, as the system remains right now. The main impact for parts of Texas and Louisiana will be heavy rain at times this weekend.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 IN ATLANTIC… Tropical Depression 7 may have been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo by the time you’re reading this discussion or seeing the video. At the time of our video production this morning, TD7 was very close to becoming a tropical storm. The depression is located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the African continent. TD7 has continued to show signs that it is strengthening, with a central dense overcast developing over the low-level center of circulation last evening. TD7/Gonzalo will likely continue to strengthen gradually as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles later this week. While some intensity models ramp the system up to hurricane status as it moves into the eastern Caribbean, the majority of models actually suggest that the storm will dissipate as it encounters a more hostile environment in the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of which of those two scenario happens, there are two big takeaways this morning. 1) It is too early to say 100% definitively that this system won’t ever affect the United States, BUT odds suggest the system won’t. Most systems that have formed at this low latitude in July have historically faded away before reaching the U.S. 2) TD7/Gonzalo is still 2-3 days out from affecting the Leeward Islands & Lesser Antilles.
TROPICS LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN MORE ACTIVE… Hurricane season is expected to continue to ramp up over the next few weeks with multiple tropical waves expected to emerge off the African continent and into the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean in the next 2-3 weeks. Keep in mind that this IS expected as we get into August. Generally, August, September, and October are historically the most active months for the Atlantic hurricane season each year.
MORE OF THE SAME LOCALLY: SCATTERED P.M. STORMS… When will we get some relief from the heat? No time soon. I realize that statement probably isn’t pleasant to hear for a lot of folks, but it’s the truth. I see no signs of our weather pattern changing in the next 7-10 days, nor do I expect any real changes anytime soon unless we get a tropical system knocking on our doorstep (also not in the forecast as of now).
WEEKEND PREVIEW: HOT & P.M. STORMS… Scattered thunderstorms will be possible primarily in the afternoon and evening hours on both Saturday and on Sunday. There should be plenty of sunshine hours at the local beaches if you’re headed to the Gulf Coast this weekend. High temperatures will remain in the mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s. Heat index values will be at or above 100 degrees each day in the afternoon hours.
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See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!
