TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… There is a low-end, yet growing, chance that a tropical wave may become a tropical storm later this week as it moves northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 20% chance that a tropical storm will form in the central Gulf and potentially move toward the Texas and Louisiana coast later this week. Right now, the tropical wave is situated near the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Environmental conditions are NOT favorable for development today or tomorrow, but once the tropical wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico, upper-level winds will be a bit more favorable for development. There is a good chance, based on the latest model consistency, that impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would be highly limited from this system regardless of if formal development happens. If tropical storm development happens, this system would take the name “Gonzalo.” Below are all of the details as of Noon on Sunday…
20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… The National Hurricane Center now includes this tropical wave near Hispaniola in their Tropical Weather Outlook discussion. It reads: “A tropical wave located over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move west-northwestward over the next several days and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing disorganized shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or Thursday.
IMPACTS ASSESSMENT: HEAVY RAIN FOR TEXAS & LOUISIANA… It is entirely too early to know specific local impacts for any given area. Based on current model trends being pretty consistent, however, it certainly seems like the greatest impacts from this system will likely be in Louisiana and Texas toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Heavy rain will likely be the main concern for areas near the Texas and Louisiana coast. If this scenario panned out, there could be increased rain chances near the coast across south Alabama and northwest Florida as the weekend approaches. Potential local impacts for each city/town locally would largely be limited if the current projected path verifies. I will be able to get much more specific over the next few days as more data comes in. Be sure to check back with me this week for the latest information.
POP-UP STORMS LOCALLY TODAY… At Noon, showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form along the seabreeze in coastal counties. We had quite a bit of rain this morning near the Alabama beaches. Rain is happening near Fairhope, Point Clear, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Dauphin Island, and Bayou La Batre. This batch of rain is expected to continue moving west. We’re also tracking heavier storms near Pace, Garcon Point, Pensacola, and Niceville. These storms will continue moving west over the next few hours. I expect more showers and thunderstorms to pop up locally over the next several hours.
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I will have your next full forecast video posted later today with a fresh morning perspective posted in the Monday morning video that will be available by 7:15AM. See y’all then!
