7:42PM August 31, 2020

RUMORS ARE TRUE: COOL SHOT OF AIR POSSIBLE IN ABOUT A WEEK… There is high confidence in multiple model scenarios that our first real shot of cooler air may happen approximately one week from now in the September 7-9 timeframe. While this idea is far from certain, some continental air from Canada may actually reach the northern Gulf Coast and bring our overnight lows down into the 60s and perhaps even upper-50s. The map attached is one model scenario off the Global Forecast System (GFS) showing the projected overnight lows for Wednesday, September 9. Note that this IS beyond our “normal cutoff” of 7 days out, but I do feel confident enough publicly mentioning this possibility because of the strong signal in the models.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 FORMS… The National Hurricane Center kicked off advisories earlier this evening on Tropical Depression 15, located east of the South Carolina coast in the western Atlantic Ocean. TD15 will likely become a tropical storm either later tonight or on Tuesday. No major land impacts are expected and TD15 will continue its trek into the open waters of the north Atlantic, really only being a concern to shipping interests.

TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… NHC continues to suggest this evening that a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has a 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm as it continues moving west or west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula. We note that model guidance continues to suggest (regardless of development) that this system will likely move west toward the Bay of Campeche and potentially mainland Mexico this weekend. It is still a bit too early in the development process of this storm to give a complete all clear for our local area, but I am encouraged by the trends. We’ll keep watching and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted on Tuesday morning by 7:15AM. Have a great Monday evening!

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7:41PM August 31, 2020

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1:15PM August 31, 2020

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6:52AM August 31, 2020

STORMS AT TIMES TODAY; TRACKING 4 TROPICAL DISTURBANCES… Scattered downpours are expected at times on this Monday as our seemingly endless summer pattern of P.M. storms, heat, and humidity continues. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees in most spots with heat index values expected to climb above 100 this afternoon. We continue to monitor four distinct tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin that all have at least some potential of becoming tropical storms over the next few days. While no tropical impacts are expected locally, we are expecting a continuation of the potential for tropical downpours at times this week, mainly today and then again on Friday into Saturday. The middle part of the week will trend a bit drier. Let’s look at all of your Monday forecast details.

HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES MIDWEEK… High temperatures (mid-90s) in combination with high dewpoint temperatures will lead to high heat index values Tuesday through Thursday. While the thermometer will show temperatures in the mid-90s, what it feels like outside in the afternoon and early evening hours will be more like 105-110°.

80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… The tropical wave located south of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to have the greatest chance of developing into a tropical storm out of any of the systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. This tropical wave will probably develop in the next 2-3 days as it continues moving west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Model initialization on this system hasn’t really been clear cut (like a lot of tropical storms so far this year!) so it is a bit too early to rule out any local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. I am encouraged by model trends, however, that have consistently showed the system moving into the southern Gulf and ultimately the mainland of Mexico south of Texas. That scenario has been suggested by MOST major weather models. Again, it is too early to give any type of all clear for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. This is the system we will be watching closely over the next few days.

70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… A tropical disturbance associated with a frontal boundary, located east of Jacksonville, Florida, in the far western Atlantic Ocean has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days. This disturbance will move northeast and out to sea, regardless of if formal development happens. We can safely give south Alabama and northwest Florida a complete all clear from this system.

20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE… From NHC: “A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and any development of this system should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”

30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA… The “tropical wave train” is set to continue over the next few weeks. From NHC: “A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”

SET UP APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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7:57PM August 30, 2020

FOUR TROPICAL DISTURBANCES, BUT NO IMMINENT GULF THREATS… The tropics remain active across the Atlantic Basin, but the good news is we do not have any immediate threats to any part of the Gulf of Mexico region on this Sunday evening. The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close watch on a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea that has a 70-80% chance of developing into a tropical storm as the system moves west toward the Yucatan Peninsula in a few days. There is also a separate tropical disturbance located east of Jacksonville, FL in the Atlantic that has a high (60-70%) chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system moves away from the U.S. In addition, two other tropical waves far out in the Atlantic Ocean have a low, but growing, chance of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. Let’s look at a few Sunday evening forecast details…

80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN… This evening, the tropical wave located south of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea has arguably the greatest chance of developing into a tropical storm out of any of the systems currently being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. This tropical wave will probably develop in the next 2-3 days as it continues moving west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Model initialization on this system hasn’t really been clear cut (like a lot of tropical storms so far this year!) so it is a bit too early to rule out any local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. I am encouraged by model trends, however, that have consistently showed the system moving into the southern Gulf and ultimately into the mainland of Mexico south of Texas. That scenario has been suggested by MOST major weather models. Again, it is too early to give any type of “all clear” for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. This is the system we will be watching closely over the next few days.

70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… A tropical disturbance associated with a frontal boundary, located east of Jacksonville, Florida, in the far western Atlantic Ocean has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days. This disturbance will move northeast and out to sea, regardless of if formal development happens. We can safely give south Alabama and northwest Florida a complete all clear from this system.

20% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE… From NHC: “A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and any development of this system should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions.”

30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT – TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA… The “tropical wave train” is set to continue over the next few weeks. From NHC: “A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”

LOCALLY, SCATTERED STORMS… I don’t see any signs of significant forecast changes ahead over the next 5-7 days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day over the next 7 days. The driest days through the upcoming weekend will probably be Tuesday and Wednesday when we have less in the way of storms around. High temperatures are slated to be near 90° with morning lows in the mid-70s. Seasonal early September weather!

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next full #rzw forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Monday with the very latest details on all of the tropical disturbances. We will also look in details at our next few days in terms of what you can expect locally. See you then!

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