RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY DUE TO MARCO; LOW-END TORNADO RISK… Heavy rain will be possible at times on this Monday as the eastern side of Tropical Storm Marco ushers in massive amounts of Gulf moisture. Isolated tornadoes will be possible today near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Tornadoes that do happen today likely will be small and won’t last long, but as I often say, if any type of tornado affects you, it’s a big deal. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings throughout the day in case tornado warnings are needed. Marco weakened overnight from a hurricane to tropical storm status. The system is really feeling the effects of high winds in the upper atmosphere that are truly ripping the storm apart. Tropical Storm Laura, however, continues to grow in size and strength this morning. Laura is now just south of the southern coastline of Cuba, and crucially, the low-level center of the storm remains over water. This means that Laura may actually strengthen ahead of schedule. This is not good news, considering Laura will have a very favorable environment ahead in the Gulf of Mexico. I would suggest Laura could become a powerful, dangerous hurricane Tuesday into Wednesday. Laura is likely headed to Louisiana and east Texas, where a Hurricane Watch will inevitably be needed later today. We’ve got all the details about the local tornado potential, Marco’s final hours, and Tropical Storm Laura below.

TORNADO RISK NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING… There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk of a few, brief, spin-up tornadoes near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches today into this evening across coastal areas of Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas mainly south of I-10 in Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties in this risk zone. Most of us will probably be just fine with only rain and general thunderstorms, but there may be a tornado or two around the coast today. Have a way to get urgent tornado warnings through this evening.

TIMING – TORNADO RISK TODAY… The risk of a few tornadoes exists through 7PM this evening. Once we get into the late evening hours, the tornado threat will likely diminish as the greater atmospheric dynamics associated with Marco move westward into Louisiana.

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY… The overall risk of flash flooding across the region is low, but certainly not zero. There could be a few isolated areas that have 3-4 inches of rain today, especially closer to the immediate coast. Overall rain amounts will generally be lower inland (half an inch to 2 inches of rain) and higher closer to the coast (2 to 4 inches of rain).

SHEAR TAKING A TOLL ON MARCO THIS MORNING… Marco was a hurricane less than 12 hours ago, but you certainly wouldn’t know that by looking at the infrared satellite imagery this morning. Upper-level shear continues to really take a toll on Marco. The low-level center of circulation may become totally decoupled from the convection soon, meaning technically Marco could make landfall in Louisiana with no rain happening near the center of the storm. All the rain would be to the east (over us!) if that’s the case.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA SOUTH OF CUBA… Laura is (and has been over the last 12-24 hours) over-performing this morning, in terms of structure and strength. There was quite a bit of uncertainty as to where the center of Laura would track over the last few days. Hardly any models picked up on where Laura would be at this point. The center of Tropical Storm Laura is now south of the coastline of Cuba, north of Jamaica, in the western Caribbean Sea. This is not a good situation as Laura could become a hurricane sooner than expected in the northwestern Caribbean. This means Laura could emerge as a rather “healthy” storm in the southeastern Gulf tonight.

LAURA LIKELY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF MIDWEEK… Unfortunately, Tropical Storm Laura has a very clear path to strengthening over the next 48-60 hours before its likely landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Texas coast. A few of the checkboxes we look at when determining where a tropical storm may rapidly strengthen are being checked in this case. 1) The upper-level atmosphere will be *highly* favorable for strengthening as a big ridge of high pressure (an anticyclone) will be in place basically right over Laura. This dome of high pressure high in the atmosphere can help to keep the hurricane in optimal conditions for strengthening. 2) Sea surface temperatures are *highly* (and I truly mean HIGHLY, in this case) favorable for strengthening. We’re observing water temps in the 87-89 degree range in the central Gulf. In addition, there is warm water that runs pretty deep in the middle of the Gulf. A deeper column of warmer water often points to more explosive strengthening for hurricanes. 3) Simply put, “Marco ain’t no competition.” Talk of the Fujiwhara effect is pretty much off the table at this point since Marco is effectively being sheared apart in the northern Gulf. Marco did not really produce much in the way of heavy rainfall across the central Gulf that could cool down water temperatures by any measurable amount.

The big takeaway is Hurricane Laura, from a meteorological perspective, has a clear path to strengthening, perhaps rapid strengthening, that could result in the system becoming a major hurricane Tuesday or Wednesday. Everyone from Texas eastward to the Florida Panhandle, including Alabama, Mississippi, and certainly Louisiana, should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous situation setting up for midweek.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – LAURA… Based on the latest projected path guidance from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing, finally somewhat consistent model trends, most would think it is prudent to say that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are now unlikely. Unfortunately, I am not completely comfortable saying that just yet. It is true that impacts in our local area are now a bit less likely, but I also am concerned about the *major* volatility we have seen in the modeling for Marco and Laura that we simply have not seen for other recent tropical systems. Thus, it is too early to completely rule out impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida. The trends over the last 24 hours have definitely been positive for our area, in terms of potential impacts. I imagine we’ll be able to have much more confidence in this idea (if trends continue) tonight and on Tuesday.

REST OF ATLANTIC BASIN IS QUIET, FOR NOW… The tropical wave that moved off of the African continent into the eastern Atlantic has dissipated. Late last week, confidence was pretty high that tropical wave may develop into a tropical storm and recurve into the Atlantic. Fortunately, the presence of drier, dusty air sweeping in from the east off the Sahara Desert has firmly cancelled that idea. The main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean from the Lesser Antilles eastward to Africa is now very quiet. Activity will probably pick up in a week or two.

SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY AFTER TODAY… Looking ahead to Tuesday through Thursday, we will maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region each day. Most of these showers and storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours each day. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and near 90 starting again on Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the low-70s.

SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed update later this evening concerning the latest on Tropical Storm Laura as we look ahead to the middle part of the week when Laura could be strengthening in the central Gulf. Until then, plenty of updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app over the next few hours.

Have a great Monday!