MAJOR FORECAST CHANGE: LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM MARCO

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES…Tropical Storm Marco could be making a surprise visit closer to home than initially thought. The latest projected path from the National Hurricane Center as of 4PM Saturday has shifted eastward in a significant way. NHC now suggests Marco will likely make landfall in Louisiana, and not Texas, some time on Monday. This means that potential local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida from Marco may become possible as early as Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for both Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. In addition, a Hurricane Watch is now in effect from the Mississippi-Alabama border westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. We also continue to watch Tropical Storm Laura near Puerto Rico. Laura is likely to emerge into the southeastern Gulf near Cuba on Monday before moving toward Louisiana midweek. Forecast confidence remains very low and further significant track and intensity adjustments may be possible. A few Saturday early evening notes are below.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DUE TO MARCO IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… This is a significant change from previous forecasts, meaning I need your help to get the word out about this. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida because of Marco (which may be a strong tropical storm or hurricane as it approaches on Monday) will be possible. Rain chances will increase throughout the day on Monday, and there is a chance we may have to deal with isolated tornadoes, especially near the coast on Monday night into Tuesday. High surf, dangerous rip currents, coastal flooding, and perhaps minor storm surge may become an issue at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. High winds are unlikely across inland areas, but winds may gust up to 50 mph at the coast Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast confidence in these ideas remains low, and further significant changes are not out of the question. *Please* check in with me over the next 24-48 hours for the latest updates on Marco. Midweek, we may be dealing with some impacts because of Tropical Storm Laura. More details about Laura are below.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS (LAURA) IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Depending on the exact future track of Tropical Storm Laura, which will likely become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, potential local impacts may change. The latest forecast from NHC calls for the center of Laura to remain to our south, but impacts will be possible locally, especially at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches on Wednesday into early Thursday. Gusty winds (25-35 mph), high waves, rip currents, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will all be possible locally in coastal counties due to Laura. Inland areas may contend with heavy rain, breezy conditions (15-25 mph winds), and the potential for isolated tornadoes. Honestly, we need to see how the rapidly evolving situation with Marco plays out before we get specific with Laura BUT because of the expected timing with Laura moving into the Gulf on Monday, we do not have the luxury of ignoring the situation altogether. Big takeaway with expected local impacts because of Laura: Stay tuned!

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I will have more details for you later this evening as we continue to track Tropical Storms Laura and Marco. In the meantime, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for more updates. Have a nice evening!

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