40% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center has increased chances of development for a new tropical storm in the western Caribbean Sea. While development is not imminent over the next two days, the concern is that a tropical storm will develop late this week, this weekend, or early next week. There is high chance that this developing system will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week. While it is too early to speculate where this storm will end up, it serves as yet another reminder that hurricane season is long from over. Interests from northern Mexico and Texas eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida should keep tabs on this development potential in the days ahead.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT… At 1PM, we have showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop across the western part of Alabama and eastern Mississippi. There remains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid this evening as a cold front moves into our local area from the northwest. Thunderstorms could be briefly strong to marginally severe, with the main concern being gusty winds capable of knocking down a tree or two across the region. Tornadoes are not expected today. I will have radar updates posted as needed in the RedZone Weather app in the hours ahead.

SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have another detailed update later this evening. Have a nice Monday afternoon!

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ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING; 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may be possible later today into this evening as a strong cold front arrives from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for inland areas of southwest Alabama today. The risk is driven by the risk of a few of the storms producing gusty winds capable of knocking down a tree or two. We note the tornado risk today remains at or near zero in most spots. Temperatures will be warm today with most spots peaking in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances will gradually increase today ahead of a cluster of storms expected to move in from the west after 3PM. Showers will linger on Tuesday long after the risk of storms ends. Cool air will begin to filter into our area from the northwest tonight. We also will be a watching a new area of concern in the tropics in the western Caribbean over the next few days. More Monday forecast notes are below.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… Much of Alabama is involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) “marginal” severe weather risk valid for today into this evening. These are the counties where gusty winds may be possible in the strongest of the thunderstorms that happen today into tonight: Monroe, Clarke, Washington (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Escambia (AL), Mobile, Baldwin, Crenshaw, Pike, Choctaw, Wilcox, Marengo, and points northward. For central Alabama, this low-end severe weather risk zone includes places near Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Gadsden, Anniston, Decatur, Huntsville, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Clanton, Alexander City, Eutaw, Livingston, Fayette, Hamilton, Cullman, Oneonta, Fort Payne, and surrounding areas.

STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT; RAIN EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY… The main risk for any strong or severe storms today will be from 4PM to 9PM. Scattered showers will likely extend well beyond that timeframe into Tuesday.

COOL AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT… Today is our final day with 80 degree temperature readings for awhile as high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s after today with overnight lows in the 50s starting Wednesday morning. An extended streak of nice, sunny weather starts Wednesday and will likely last through at least Sunday.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center has added an outlined area in the western Caribbean Sea where our next tropical storm may form. NHC says there is a 20% chance of a tropical storm forming east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in the warm waters of the western Caribbean by the end of the week. For now, this is not a concern, but this will be yet another tropical system we will need to watch in the days ahead.

TORNADO WARNING POLICY… While the risk of a tornado warning for any part of our local area today remains very low, our coverage commitment stands. Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great start to your week!

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