RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY; ETA TO OUR SOUTH… Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout the day on this Veterans Day Wednesday. Thank you to all of the many veterans that have so bravely served our country! We honor you today. Rain and storms will probably be most numerous this afternoon into this evening between 1PM and 10PM. Rain and storms today are associated with the larger circulation of Eta to our south in combination with a frontal boundary situated to our northwest. High temperatures on this Wednesday will be in the low-80s. Tropical Storm Eta is situated several hundred miles south of our local coastline. Eta is drifting very slowly to the north. Eta is now forecast to move to our southeast, likely making landfall in west Florida as a tropical storm later this week. We also continue to monitor Subtropical Storm Theta in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and another tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea. More details are below.

STORMS TODAY, BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Rain, thunder, lightning, and even gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the thunderstorms that develop across our region. Widespread severe weather is not expected today locally and the tornado risk remains at or near zero in most spots. Rain chances will be maximized this afternoon into this evening.

TROPICAL STORM ETA IN THE SOUTHERN GULF… The storm that just won’t go away, Tropical Storm Eta, continues to drift northward in the southern Gulf of Mexico on this Wednesday. There continues to be a lack of a driving mechanism to force the storm in any given direction, thus a poleward, northward movement by default is somewhat expected. Eta could become a hurricane today, but the system IS expected to weaken considerably in the next 3-4 days as it moves over increasingly cooler waters and dry air begins to take a toll on the system. In addition to those two mitigating factors, strong southwesterly shear associated with a strong jet stream currently to the northwest of the storm will begin to rip the system to pieces later this week. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely be limited to rip currents and high waves at local beaches. Significant other impacts are not expected. Landfall of Eta is expected somewhere along the western coast of Florida, perhaps near or north of Tampa, over the next few days.

THETA IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC… Theta has become a purely tropical storm (as opposed to the subtropical storm classification yesterday) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Theta is moving east rapidly, at 10-15 mph. Theta will not be a direct issue for any part of North America. The storm will likely dissipate in 4-5 days.

HIGH CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM (IOTA) FORMING… There is now a high (80%) chance of a new tropical storm forming in the Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Most of the major global models show this system ultimately moving into central America next week. From NHC: “A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea.”

UNSETTLED PATTERN LOCALLY TILL MONDAY… There will be at least some chance of rain each day through Monday as our area remains located south of a cold front. That front will ultimately move across our area on Monday, ushering in cooler, drier air (and sunny skies!) by Tuesday of the upcoming week.

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See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice day!

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LOCAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ETA NOT LIKELY AT THIS POINT… Finally, some good news to report! Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from Tropical Storm Eta are much less likely to happen as the storm is expected to pass well to our east. Confidence in the forecast has increased to the point that the National Hurricane Center has triggered a Tropical Storm Warning for much of the west (Gulf) coast of Florida, including areas near Tampa and St. Petersburg.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY ON WEDNESDAY… Grab the rain gear and keep it handy on Wednesday as rain chances will be rising throughout the day. Rain and storms will be most likely to happen in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected. Highs will be in the low-80s (warm!).

My next forecast video update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow. Have a great evening!

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