ETA TO MEANDER IN GULF THIS WEEK; 20% CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IN CARIBBEAN… Tropical Storm Eta has prompted a Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys ahead of the system moving into the southeastern Gulf tomorrow. Eta will be a significant rainmaker for parts of South Florida over the next several days as the storm basically stalls out and moves very slowly over the southeastern Gulf. It appears the center of Eta may be in the eastern Gulf as late as Thursday into Friday with our local area NOT expected to have any significant local impacts (other than high waves and rip currents at local beaches) over the next few days. We also are now watching a tropical wave that has a 20% chance of becoming yet another, separate tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea over the next 5 days. We’ve got your full Sunday evening forecast rundown below.

MAINLY SUNNY TODAY; RAIN LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK LOCALLY… Warm, mostly sunny conditions are in progress this afternoon across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will peak around 82 in most spots across the region today. Rain chances are expected to increase later this week, peaking most likely on Veterans Day Wednesday when we have a 60-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be stable this week with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

LATEST ON ETA AS OF 1PM SUNDAY… As of the 1PM EST advisory for Tropical Storm Eta, the storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The center of circulation has emerged north of the Cuban coastline. That means Eta is centered about 170 miles south-southeast of Miami, FL or about 145 miles southeast of Marathon, FL, which is in the Florida Keys. Eta is expected to re-strengthen gradually this evening into Monday. There is a chance Eta may be a hurricane at the time it is passing through the Florida Keys tomorrow.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLORIDA KEYS… A Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for all parts of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. NHC has issued this Hurricane Warning to account for the possibility that Eta strengthens into a hurricane as the center of the storm passes near or directly over the Florida Keys.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA… For areas in South Florida not involved in the Hurricane Warning (in the Keys), a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. This includes areas near Miami, Fort Lauderdale, the Everglades, Lake Okeechobee, Naples, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach, Pompano Beach, and surrounding areas.

ETA TO NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL THIS WEEK… Tropical Storm Eta is now explicitly forecast to become a hurricane near or just west of the Florida Keys when the center of the storm moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Eta will continue to be a big rainmaker for South Florida over the next few days as the storm basically just sits in the southeastern Gulf. The upper-level atmospheric steering currents will essentially be too far removed from the storm over the next few days to really have much influence on movement, thus Eta won’t be moving much at all. While this could be increasingly problematic for parts of South Florida, Cuba, and The Bahamas due to ongoing rain and flooding issues, this is a GOOD thing for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida.

TOO EARLY FOR AN “ALL CLEAR” LOCALLY JUST YET… Eta is going to be around awhile in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida seem increasingly unlikely. There continues to be a chance that Eta sits, spins, and ultimately fades away over the eastern Gulf toward the end of the week. Other than big waves and rip currents at local beaches, significant local impacts from Eta appear unlikely as of this moment. Obviously that can change, but the trends continue to be encouraging for our local area.

NEW TROPICAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM IN CARIBBEAN… Totally separate from Tropical Storm Eta, we will need to monitor a tropical wave that is set to move into the central Caribbean Sea later this week. The National Hurricane Center has outlined this area in a 20% chance of tropical storm formation probability area. The global weather models have alluded to some potential for a storm developing in the Caribbean in this area over the last few days, thus it seems to prudent to start mentioning this possibility. It is far too early to know if this storm will pose a legitimate threat to the Gulf of Mexico region or if the storm may turn north or continue moving west toward Central America. Those are all plausible scenarios right now. We’ll keep watching in the days ahead.

TROPICAL LOW IN MIDDLE OF ATLANTIC… This system won’t ever be a direct concern for the U.S. but NHC has also highlighted an area of concern in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. This area of low pressure is several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda and well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Note that this system is not visible on the attached graphic since it will not be a threat to North America. From NHC: “A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a few days. Environmental conditions may be conducive for at least gradual development thereafter while the system moves slowly westward through the end of the week.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Monday (tomorrow). Until then, plenty more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Sunday evening!