FEW SHOWERS TODAY; ETA TO BE IN GULF BY MONDAY… A few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible on this Saturday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s today. We continue to track Eta, located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on this Saturday morning. Eta is strengthening this morning. The storm is likely to make landfall along the coastline of Cuba some time on Sunday morning, most likely as a tropical storm. Eta has prompted a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of South Florida, where heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty winds will all be concerns in the days ahead. Once Eta moves northwest into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, the forecast confidence drops considerably, however, there continues to be mounting evidence in the model data to suggest our local area MAY potentially dodge most of the core impacts from this system. While it remains far too early to conclusively rule out impacts, the data has been consistent over the last 24-36 hours suggesting our area may end up being on the eastern flank of this system regardless of its intensity. A few Saturday morning forecast notes are below.

LOW (NOT ZERO!) RAIN CHANCES IN THE DAYS AHEAD… Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region today and in the days ahead. I am not expecting a significant, widespread rain event through Wednesday, but I am expecting a few showers and thunderstorms to develop each day. Not everyone will have rain but some spots very well might. No severe weather issues are expected.

ETA – MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Eta is currently forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Keys and South Florida late Sunday into Monday. Unfortunately, the upper-level steering currents driving Eta will be very weak going into next week, meaning the specific forecast track of the center of circulation becomes more uncertain. This also means Eta will be around for potentially quite awhile as it very slowly moves north across the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

NO OBVIOUS STEERING DRIVER BY MIDWEEK… As I mentioned in the post last night, there is a significant chance Eta may stall out over the central Gulf of Mexico and gradually just fizzle out. This is due in part to the lack of an obvious steering “driver” for the storm. As far as impacts, this scenario points to a big rain event for portions of the Florida Peninsula and potentially parts of northern Florida. For our local area, however, in this particular scenario we would not have major impacts from Eta. Keep in mind that while this IS the most likely scenario at this moment, this is highly subject to change. Hurricane Sally proved only a few weeks ago that these slow-moving tropical systems are extremely difficult to forecast, thus it is critical that we all continue to monitor this system until our local threat goes to zero. We’re not there yet, but the trends have been encouraging.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA… Nearly all of the southern part of Florida is under a Tropical Storm Watch this morning ahead of the arrival of Eta on Sunday. Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Homestead, Naples, Lake Okeechobee, and all parts of the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas are included in the Tropical Storm Watch. This will inevitably be changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for many of the coastal areas (at minimum) later today.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA & CAYMANS… A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Cayman Islands and for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates on Eta throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Saturday!

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