STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEW YEAR’S EVE; MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY… The last day of 2020 could feature severe thunderstorms and quite a bit of rainfall. Unfortunately, that means New Year’s Eve is shaping up to be quite wet with the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Before we get to that, including today, we have 3 nice weather days ahead through Wednesday. High temperatures will rise into the upper-60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will continue to be quite mild until Thursday. Our next cold front moves by just as the new year is starting. By Friday, most spots will have highs once again in the 50s and near 60 with lows near freezing by Saturday morning. Your full Monday morning forecast discussion is below.

MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY & TUESDAY… High temperatures will be in the 65-69 degree range this afternoon with an abundance of sunshine expected throughout the day. Overnight lows by 6AM Tuesday will be in the low-40s. Highs will again be in the mid- to upper-60s on Tuesday with sunny skies expected.

INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY… Cloud coverage will begin increasing on Wednesday. Temperatures will be quite mild for late December, with most spots reaching the low-70s by the afternoon hours.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Rain will become possible as early as Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. There still are some timing differences in the model guidance, but our best estimate right now shows the potential for a few showers late in the day on Wednesday with the greater rain chances happening on Thursday locally. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a severe weather risk for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday. The risk will shift east into our area on Thursday.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY… Heavy rain, gusty winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible on Thursday as a cold front approaches our area. An area of low pressure will develop to our west and move northeast throughout the day on Wednesday into Thursday. This means our area will be in the warm, unstable sector where strong to severe storms may happen. Right now, the window for severe storms seems to be greatest in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday, however, we need more data to be able to start giving a specific timeframe.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid Thursday (New Year’s Eve) into Friday (New Year’s Day). A Level 2 risk means that scattered instances of severe storms, including tornadoes and damaging winds, will be possible. Not everyone (not even close!) will have severe storms and most spots will simply have some rain, but it certainly appears that stronger storms may be a possibility for some locales across our region.

MUCH COOLER FRIDAY & SATURDAY… The cold front responsible for all of the rain and storms will move by our area likely on Thursday night, just as 2021 is kicking off. Much cooler and drier air will filter into our region on Friday. Clouds will clear out throughout the day. Highs on Friday will be in the low-60s ahead of a night with lows in the low-30s Friday night into Saturday morning. High temperatures on Saturday will drop into the upper-50s.

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video. Have a great start to your week!

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SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEW YEAR’S EVE… Severe storms, including the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging winds, will be possible across parts of Alabama and northwest Florida on New Year’s Eve Thursday potentially extending into New Year’s Day on Friday. It seems fitting for the year 2020 to end on a note like this with a severe weather outlook posted 5 days out from now to end the year. There remains considerable uncertainty as to exactly when and precisely where storms will fire up, but the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a severe weather risk for Wednesday into Thursday.

LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, INTO FRIDAY… The first risk of severe weather will set up to our west across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has basically the southern half of Louisiana and part of southern Mississippi involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) risk for Wednesday into early Thursday. Then, on Thursday, SPC shifts the risk eastward into our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. It should be noted that these advance risk zones 4-5 days out are not necessarily indicative of storm strength, but rather confidence in the idea of thunderstorms happening that could be severe. Further outlook refinements are expected in the days ahead. Please check back for updates this week.

MAIN CONCERNS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & TORNADOES… Just like our last weather system that moved by on Wednesday into Thursday LAST week, the main hazards THIS week will likely be damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down a few trees and tornadoes. Details concerning storm strength will become more clear in the days ahead. The most likely scenario as of now looks to be a strong to severe line of storms with the potential for discrete, isolated cells out ahead of the main line. It is important to make sure you have a way to get warnings.

UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TIMING SPECIFICS… It is too early to give a specific timeframe for when severe storms will be most likely to happen across our region. Right now, the latest model guidance points to Thursday afternoon into the evening hours for when storms may be most likely to happen, but I would caution that is highly subject to change over the next few days. New Year’s Eve festivities could be affected by rain and storms Thursday evening, unfortunately.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. See you then!

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