RAIN & STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY; WILL IT SNOW SOON? TOO EARLY TO KNOW… Rain is set to return on Tuesday with a chance of a few thunderstorms being possible in the morning hours. Severe weather continues to seem highly unlikely with only a limited chance of a few rumbles of thunder and lightning. Rain chances will be at their peak from 4AM to 8AM locally. Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day on Tuesday, however, as scattered showers will likely linger into the late morning and early afternoon hours. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid-60s. Looking ahead, we have a very challenging forecast setting up in 7-14 days with the potential for very cold air and PERHAPS some wintry precipitation under some scenarios. A few more Monday evening forecast notes are below.
UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY… Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms are ahead over the next few days as a cold front approaches later in the week. Through Thursday, our area will be involved in a mild, humid airmass capable of supporting rain and storms at times. The overall severe weather risk over the next few days remains quite low, but I would not be surprised if some areas had thunderstorms at times, especially if you’re in a community closer to the coast. There will be no snow or mixed precipitation in our local area through at least Friday as temperature profiles will simply be too warm. Things begin to get more interesting this weekend, however.
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY… Winds will shift from out of the south on Thursday to out of the north on Friday, meaning much cooler, continental air will move into our region. There is a real chance that high temperatures on Sunday won’t get to 50 degrees. There is high confidence in the idea of cooler temperatures happening during the upcoming weekend. There is much lower confidence, however, when it comes to the potential for mixed precipitation or snow during the upcoming weekend into early next week.
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION? TOO EARLY TO KNOW… Overnight lows Sunday and Monday mornings may be near or just below freezing, according to some of our reliable weather models, like the GFS. The question is: Will we have sufficient moisture in place Sunday night or perhaps on Tuesday night of next week as an area of low pressure develops to our south and moves across our area, allowing for a brief changeover to mixed precipitation or snow? I wish I had an answer for that question. I do not, and no one does. Keep in mind, we are dealing with model data near my “cut off point” for reliability (7 days out) and thus, big forecast changes remain possible. There is a very real chance we may continue to have rounds of rain into next week with no chance of wintry mix or snow locally. There also is a (small) chance we could have a changeover to snow or mixed precipitation, under some scenarios, one or two times next week.
THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE… I know most folks want a simple “yes” or “no” answer when it comes to snow forecasting around here, but that is something we cannot yet provide. There IS a chance (albeit, a low one!) for some winter mischief next week, but there is no consensus or agreement in the model data, thus forecast confidence remains very low. Thank you for taking the time to read this long post and understand the complexities of making our forecast every, single day. I will keep watching model trends and bring you the latest information. The way I would summarize the answer to “Will it snow in south Alabama and northwest Florida soon?” right now is: Probably not, but the chances are not zero. Stay tuned!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed forecast video and long form text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I will have radar updates posted as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Monday evening!
