STRONG TORNADOES LIKELY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY; LOWER RISK LOCALLY… Thursday, March 25 could be a significant severe weather day for parts of the Deep South, but the risk of tornadoes in south Alabama and northwest Florida seems to be a bit lower. Keep in mind that tornadoes may still happen locally on Thursday, but the risk seems to be greatest in areas to our north and west across parts of north Mississippi, north Alabama, and southern Tennessee where the Storm Prediction Center has a Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone in place. A few more Wednesday evening forecast notes are below.
WHAT TO EXPECT – OVERNIGHT… Showers continue to develop near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches as of 7:30PM Wednesday evening. I expect showers and storms to gradually spread inland over the next few hours. Rain will be possible at times overnight and into early Thursday morning. Don’t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder every now and then overnight as scattered thunderstorms ARE expected. The overall severe weather risk tonight into early Thursday remains quite low, and if any storm happens to ramp up to stronger levels, small hail and gusty winds are the main concerns. The tornado risk tonight remains quite low, near zero in most spots.
WHAT TO EXPECT – THURSDAY… Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong, potentially long track tornadoes will be possible across parts of Mississippi, the northern half of Alabama, and southern Tennessee. These storms are expected to start firing after 11AM into the early afternoon hours. Locally, other than a few showers, there is a real chance most spots will be DRY for much of the day on Thursday. Storms will likely increase in coverage late in the day across our local area. Some of these storms could be strong or severe, and a few tornadoes may be possible as far south as our local area. We will have radar updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app and IF tornado warnings are needed locally, we will go into uninterrupted live video coverage to bring you the very latest.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Tornadoes will be possible across the entire region tomorrow, but there is an increased likelihood of tornadoes forming in northwest Alabama, particularly in areas along, north, and west of Interstate 59. The following places are involved in this higher severe weather risk valid for Thursday: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Jasper, Demopolis, Livingston, Leeds, Gadsden, Fort Payne, Scottsboro, Fayette, Aliceville, Eutaw, Hamilton, Double Springs, Russellville, Moulton, Athens, Oneonta, Boaz, Centreville, and surrounding areas. These are the areas that have the greatest chance of experiencing a long track, significant tornado on Thursday. This Level 4 risk zone also includes Nashville (TN), Memphis (TN), Jackson (TN), Tupelo (MS), Jackson (MS), Starkville (MS), Columbus (MS), Oxford (MS), Meridian (MS), and surrounding areas.
LOCAL AREA: LEVEL 2 RISK… Most of us in south Alabama remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk where scattered severe storms, including a tornado or two, will be possible. Let me be clear in saying the tornado risk IS lower in our local area, but it is NOT zero. We all need to have a way to get warnings on Thursday. I would suggest IF we have tornado warnings locally tomorrow, the warnings are MOST likely to happen in Choctaw, Marengo, Clarke, Washington, and Wilcox counties, unfortunately similar to what happened on Wednesday of last week. Parts of Clarke, Marengo, and Choctaw counties are involved in the higher risk zones.
I will have another detailed video update posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Thursday) morning. Be sure to join me with that as we look at the very latest information. Have a great Wednesday evening!
