ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD ON THURSDAY… Tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will be possible on Thursday as a powerful weather system sets up across the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center includes parts of our local area in Clarke and Washington counties in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. More outlook upgrades and adjustments will probably be necessary over the next 36 hours leading up to this severe weather event. Regardless of which specific color/risk zone your specific city/town is involved in, we ALL have a risk of tornadoes and severe weather on Thursday into Thursday night. That includes communities in both Alabama and in northwest Florida. Please have a way to get warnings on Thursday! In addition to the severe weather risk, we are tracking plenty of rain across the region tonight that could cause flash flooding. More details are below.
WHAT TO EXPECT – OVERNIGHT… In short, rain! Heavy rain will be possible at times overnight. A few thunderstorms are also possible, especially closer to the immediate coast. Don’t be surprised by a few rumbles of thunder. Widespread severe weather is not expected overnight. We note there could be a few stronger storms on Wednesday across the region. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include parts of Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, Baldwin, Mobile, and Escambia (FL) counties in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk tomorrow. The more significant tornado risk will clearly happen on Thursday, however. Gusty winds will also be possible overnight. The local National Weather Service sent out a statement earlier indicating a “wake low” has formed behind the mass of rain and storms. This feature may bring 30-40 mph wind gusts to inland parts of south Alabama in the hours ahead.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED… Several more counties have been added to the Flash Flood Watch since this morning. Several communities in the Flash Flood Watch could pick up 5 to 7 inches of rainfall over the next several days and flash flooding will be a concern through at least Friday. The following local counties are involved in the Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning: Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Mobile, and Baldwin.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY… This timeframe is valid for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Quite similar to the last severe weather event last Wednesday, the tornado risk may increase early on before transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat later in the risk timeframe. The severe weather risk will extend from 11AM Thursday to 7AM Friday with the tornado risk likely to be greatest in the afternoon hours of Thursday. The damaging wind & tornado risk will likely increase again later in the evening and into the early morning hours of Friday as a line of strong to severe storms crosses our area.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… The greatest tornado risk on Thursday into early Friday morning will likely set up across parts of west Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee. These are the zones where the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone is in place. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, will be possible. The following locales are involved in the Level 3 risk in our local area: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Millry, Chatom, Campbell, and surrounding areas. The Level 3 risk also includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Butler, Demopolis, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Marion, Centreville, Hoover, Leeds, Oneonta, Cullman, Jasper, Fayette, Aliceville, Gordo, Hamilton, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Russellville, Decatur, Huntsville, Ardmore, and surrounding areas in northwest Alabama. Many places in Mississippi, including Jackson, Tupelo, Meridian, Hattiesburg, Columbus, Oxford, and Starkville are also involved in the Level 3 risk zone.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… Farther to the east, a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place for several local communities. A Level 2 risk means that scattered severe storms will be possible. The Level 2 risk is in place for these areas locally: Mobile, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Prichard, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Dauphin Island, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola, Century, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Pace, Milton, Jay, Berrydale, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Carolina, Red Level, Straughn, Gantt, Laurel Hill, Crestview, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Lenox, Belleville, Owassa, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Perdue Hill, Megargal, Frisco City, Excel, Gainestown, McIntosh, and surrounding areas. We note that several communities to our east and northeast are also involved in the Level 2 risk: Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Elba, Abbeville, Daleville, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, and surrounding areas.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, *before* we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed forecast video and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me for the latest information ahead of this potentially significant round of severe storms on Thursday. Have a nice Tuesday evening!
