First projected path for newly designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 5. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados.
There is forecast uncertainty in 4-5 days for the track AND intensity of this system, but there is a real possibility for Gulf impacts next week. pic.twitter.com/nB7j7jeQ8m
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 30, 2021
Paxton, FL 3:30pm
Seems to be headed this way ? lol pic.twitter.com/BmSOFNBFI0— JJ (@JJsWorld24) June 30, 2021
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 30, 2021
Heavy pockets of rain continue to develop across the region as of 3PM. Storms are producing heavy rain near Atmore, Spanish Fort, West Mobile, Ridge Road, and Poarch. Storms are drifting west. pic.twitter.com/gL43FVxWPG
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 30, 2021
Scattered thunderstorms continue to become more numerous and drift westward. Heaviest rain as of 1:23PM is happening near Point Clear, Fairhope, Seminole, Quintette, Molino, Milton, Pace, and Harold. pic.twitter.com/Uqp7egvkSM
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 30, 2021
NEW TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP; NEXT NAME: ELSA… The National Hurricane Center gives a tropical wave located about 1,300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles a 90% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next few days as the system continues to rapidly move west. Organization has significantly increased today, and it appears the system could be on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm as soon as tonight or tomorrow. There is high confidence that this system will continue moving west into the Caribbean Sea later this week into the weekend, however there is no way to know just yet whether the system will be a real threat to Florida or the Gulf Coast region. I would suggest, based on the longer-range models, however, that interests along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system over the next several days.
UNUSUAL TO HAVE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN JUNE IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC… We have had several tropical waves flare up over the last few weeks in the “MDR,” or Main Development Region, of the Atlantic Ocean, located between the Lesser Antilles and the African continent. This is unusual for the month of June as we are still early in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Normally this early in the hurricane season, an upper-level trough digs down into the region near the Lesser Antilles and prevents tropical storms from forming. That trough currently is not present, thus allowing more waves to potentially become problematic.
NEXT NAME: ELSA… Once this tropical disturbance becomes a classified storm and takes a name, it will be “Elsa,” like the widely known Walt Disney character “Elsa” in the hit movie, Frozen. Just being honest, that is the only Elsa I am personally familiar with! Do you know an Elsa in person other than Disney’s Elsa? I do not.
APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates on this developing tropical system over the next few days posted in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed forecast video and long form text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a good Wednesday afternoon!
The first advisory on this developing tropical system will likely be issued later today or tonight, per @NHC_Atlantic.
Too early to know whether this will be an issue for the Gulf Coast, but something to watch over the next few days. Details: https://t.co/O2gmKbXfpW pic.twitter.com/hhSBPZUiOS
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 30, 2021
2 PM EDT: NHC is monitoring a broad low pressure area with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 h. Potential tropical cyclone advisories are likely to be issued later today, and Lesser Antilles interests should monitor this system. https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/SjOsBmz7Ir
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 30, 2021