4:24PM July 23, 2021

40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING NEAR FLORIDA; FUTURE TRACK UNCERTAIN… An area of low pressure, now branded as INVEST 90L, currently situated east of the Florida Peninsula in the western Atlantic Ocean may strengthen and become a tropical storm over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 40% chance of a tropical storm forming east of Florida, just north of The Bahamas through the weekend. Unfortunately, confidence in exactly where this developing system will end up is exceptionally low right now. Model guidance consistently suggested early on that this system would ultimately move out to sea into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. That idea has been complicated today by the fact that an entire suite of models has now shifted and is now suggesting the idea that the system may develop, cross the Florida Peninsula, and end up in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

SEVERAL TRACK SCENARIOS POSSIBLE… One thing is certain regarding the immediate future of INVEST 90L: The system won’t be going anywhere fast, over the next 24-48 hours at least. Steering currents over the system remain weak. That is not good news, necessarily, as the system is very near the warm waters of the northward-moving Gulf Stream, located just east of the Florida Peninsula. The Global Forecast System (GFS) and many other models continue to show this system remaining fairly weak and ultimately moving the system out to sea into the Atlantic, which would be a best case scenario. Today, the ECMWF/Euro suite of models shows the system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm before making landfall in the Florida Peninsula some time this weekend before moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday or early next week. As recently as this morning, local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this system seemed highly unlikely. Unfortunately, with this change in model output, it appears local impacts could become possible next week, depending on the exact track of INVEST 90L.

If INVEST 90L develops into a tropical storm, it will take the name “Fred.”

SHOWERS & STORMS HAPPENING NOW; MORE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Locally, no issues are expected from INVEST 90L. We are, however, seeing quite a few showers and thunderstorms across the region as of 4:20PM on this Friday. At the moment, heavy rain is happening near Monroeville, Atmore, Jay, Repton, Wagerville, Bay Minette, Stockton, Citronelle, and Mt. Vernon. Storms are slowly moving southeast today. Another round of pop-up thunderstorms is expected tomorrow (Saturday), primarily in the afternoon and evening hours.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted throughout the weekend on INVEST 90L with many more local radar updates being posted in the RedZone Weather app.

Have a nice Friday evening!

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