4:04PM August 9, 2021

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING NEAR LESSER ANTILLES; MAY APPROACH GULF BY WEEKEND… The first advisory on newly designated Potential Tropical Cyclone #6 shows the system moving northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. PTC6 is expected to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. When that happens, the system will take the name “Fred.”

SEVERAL OBSTACLES AHEAD FOR PTC6… We note that early model guidance generally keeps PTC6/Fred fairly weak over the next few days. This is due to the system interacting with the land masses of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. The high terrain of these islands may disrupt the overall development of the system. On the high end, it appears this system may reach moderate tropical storm intensity over the next few days. On the flip side of that, the land interaction of the Greater Antilles may help to keep the system as a weak area of low pressure. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and high waves are ahead for the Greater Antilles through Friday.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS WEEKEND… It remains a bit too early to conclusively say exactly where PTC6/Fred will ultimately end up. We note that most of the major weather models keep the center of PTC6/Fred to our east, thus indicating the potential for tropical impacts for parts of the Florida Peninsula this weekend into next week. This would be a good scenario for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in that our area would be on the western/drier side of the circulation center. Please keep in mind that we are very early in the forecasting process for this system and changes are LIKELY over the next few days. Please check back in for updates, both in the morning video over the next few days and in the RedZone Weather app each day.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted over the next few hours in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Monday evening!

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