6:54AM August 11, 2021

T.S. FRED MAY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF LOCAL AREA; DETAILED MORNING UPDATE… Impacts from Tropical Storm Fred are likely in parts of the Southeastern U.S. this weekend into next week. The latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center continues to show Tropical Storm Fred moving northwest into the southeastern Gulf near the Florida Keys by Saturday. It remains a bit too early to know if local impacts will be a likelihood in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Most of the model guidance shows the system passing a bit to our east, but further forecast model guidance over the next few days may change the ultimate trajectory for this developing storm. Locally, pop-up storms are expected across the region again on this Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s with heat index values likely to be in excess of 105°. A few more Wednesday morning forecast notes are below.

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – TROPICAL STORM FRED… Right now, the latest guidance for Tropical Storm Fred continues to show the center of the storm moving east of our local area. Part of our local area is included in the latest cone of uncertainty, thus it is far too early to rule out any local impacts. IF the center of Fred tracks to our east, local impacts would largely be limited since our area would be on the better/west side of the storm. However, if the center of Fred moves closer to our area, obviously all tropical impacts (including gusty winds near the coast, heavy rain/flash flooding, tornadoes, and coastal flooding) would become possible. It remains a bit too early for any specifics like this. Please check back in over the next few days for updates as we get more data on this developing system.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT AHEAD OF FRED… A Tropical Storm Warning continues this morning for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas.

SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY IN P.M. HOURS TODAY… Showers and thunderstorms will start popping up later this morning. I expect the overall coverage of rain and storms to peak in the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain will likely be heavy in localized areas with intense cloud-to-ground lightning being possible in addition to loud thunder. Widespread severe weather is not expected today.

SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVE WELL EAST OF FRED… Another tropical wave has emerged from the African continent that has a 20-30% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as the system continues moving west across the Atlantic Ocean. From NHC: “A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.”

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the details in your Wednesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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