4:02PM August 13, 2021

PROJECTED PATH OF FRED SHIFTS WEST; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MONDAY… The future track of Fred, currently a tropical depression near Cuba, has shifted west. This means that more of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in the cone of uncertainty. Local impacts may become possible Monday across the eastern part of our local area in parts of Butler, Covington, and Okaloosa counties, in addition to southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. While significant impacts remain unlikely in our local area, gusty winds up to tropical storm force (39+ mph) may be possible near the northwest Florida beaches. In addition, rain chances may have to be adjusted a bit higher for Monday. A few tornadoes will be possible along and east of the center of circulation, but it remains a bit too early to know exactly where the center of Fred will make landfall.

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – FRED… This track adjustment to the west brings more of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida into the projected path of Fred. Despite this, it appears the center of Fred will pass near or just to the east of our local area. This means that MOST, if not all, of our area, will be on the better/western side of this highly sheared storm. If further track adjustments to the west are required, more local impacts in our local area may happen. Tropical storm force wind gusts may be possible near the northwest Florida beaches. A Tropical Storm Watch will probably be needed for part of the Florida Panhandle coast in the next day or so.

5PM ADVISORY – FRED… As of the 5PM EDT advisory for Fred, the system remains a disorganized tropical depression located along the northern coastline of Cuba. The center of Fred is difficult to see on visible and infrared satellite imagery, but NHC indicates the center is about 210 miles southeast of Key West, Florida or about 15 miles south-southwest of Caibarien, Cuba. Maximum winds remain at 35 mph with minimum central pressure at 1013 millibars. Fred is moving west at 12 mph.

FRED TO MOVE INTO GULF TONIGHT… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys and parts of the South Florida coast on the Gulf side ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Fred. The center of Fred is expected to pass very near or directly over the Florida Keys tomorrow morning before moving northwest into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. While the center of Fred is expected to basically parallel the coast as it moves north, much of the rain and gusty winds associated with Fred will be displaced from the center. This means the weekend in the Florida Peninsula will be quite wet with numerous showers and thunderstorms.

LANDFALL OF FRED LIKELY IN FLORIDA PANHANDLE… The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast a landfall of Fred in the Florida Panhandle, but the projected path has been shifted west. Landfall seems more likely to happen near Destin, Santa Rosa Beach, or Seaside.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC… In addition to Fred, we’re also now tracking a new tropical depression located in the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This system will likely take a very similar path to what happened with Fred over the next few days. TD7 is likely to end up somewhere near Puerto Rico or Hispaniola in 4-5 days. Let’s get through Fred and we will more heavily focus on this next potential system next week.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted over the next few hours in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Friday evening!

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