DETAILED COUNTY-BY-COUNTY INFO OF WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT DURING FRED… The latest projection for Tropical Storm Fred is good news for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. The National Hurricane Center has shifted the cone of uncertainty back to the east a bit more. The cone of uncertainty of where the center of Fred is likely to make landfall extends from Navarre, FL on the west side to Port St. Joe, FL on the east side with a most likely landfall point near Seaside, FL. Fred has strengthened slightly over the last few hours. Maximum winds are now up to 45 mph. NHC calls for a landfall in the Florida Panhandle region tomorrow (Monday) evening as a 50-60 mph tropical storm.
Most of the impacts associated with Fred will happen along and east of the center of circulation, likely sparing our local area from the heavier rain and stronger winds. I have a highly detailed, county-by-county analysis below highlighting exactly what you can expect in your hometown. Find your town below!
OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL… Wind gusts of 30-40 mph may happen near the immediate coastal zones of Fort Walton Beach and Destin. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph may happen near Niceville and Eglin AFB along Choctawhatchee Bay. Breezy conditions are possible farther inland in Okaloosa County on Monday into Tuesday. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected across much of the county, depending on the exact future track of Fred. Minor storm surge of 1 to 3 feet may be possible. There is a limited risk of a few tornadoes being possible, depending on the exact future track of Tropical Storm Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all parts of Okaloosa County. A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.
SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL… Wind gusts of 25-35 mph may happen near Navarre. Farther inland, breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected across much of the county. There is a limited risk of a few tornadoes being possible, depending on the exact future track of Tropical Storm Fred. Minor storm surge of 1 to 2 feet may be possible near the coast. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all parts of Santa Rosa County. A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL… Wind gusts of 20-30 mph may happen near Pensacola Beach and Gulf Breeze. Farther inland, breezy (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected across much of the county. The risk of any storm surge in Escambia County, FL remains very low. The tornado risk remains very low. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all parts of Escambia County, FL. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.
COVINGTON COUNTY, AL… Wind gusts of 20-30 mph may happen across the county. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) are expected throughout the day Monday and into Tuesday. There is a limited risk of a few tornadoes being possible, depending on the exact future track of Tropical Storm Fred. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected across much of the county, depending on the exact future track of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all parts of Covington County, AL. A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, AL… Wind gusts of 15-25 mph may happen across the county. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) are expected throughout the day Monday and into Tuesday. There is a limited risk of a few tornadoes being possible, depending on the exact future track of Tropical Storm Fred. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected across much of the county, depending on the exact future track of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all parts of Escambia County, AL. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall.
CONECUH COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Conecuh County. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. There is a low-end risk of a few tornadoes along and east of the center of Fred, but it remains to be seen if Conecuh County is on the east or west side of the circulation. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville.
BUTLER COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Butler County. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. There is a low-end risk of a few tornadoes along and east of the center of Fred, but it remains to be seen if Butler County is on the east or west side of the circulation. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home.
MONROE COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Monroe County. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. The tornado risk is currently very low or near zero since the county is expected to be on the better/western side of the circulation associated with Tropical Storm Fred. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska.
CLARKE COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Clarke County. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. The tornado risk is currently very low or near zero since the county is expected to be on the better/western side of the circulation associated with Tropical Storm Fred. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs.
WASHINGTON COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Washington County, AL. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. The tornado risk is currently very low or near zero since the county is expected to be on the better/western side of the circulation associated with Tropical Storm Fred. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm.
MOBILE COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Mobile County. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. The tornado risk is currently very low or near zero since the county is expected to be on the better/western side of the circulation associated with Tropical Storm Fred. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.
BALDWIN COUNTY, AL… Significant hazards are not expected from Tropical Storm Fred at this time in Baldwin County. Breezy conditions (10-20 mph wind gusts) may be possible Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times. The tornado risk is currently very low or near zero since the county is expected to be on the better/western side of the circulation associated with Tropical Storm Fred. Please stay tuned for further updates over the next 48 hours.
Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.
I will have another detailed update posted later this evening. Updates are being posted near constantly in the RedZone Weather app.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice Sunday evening!
