7:11AM August 15, 2021

FRED ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY; HEAVY RAIN & TORNADOES ARE MAIN CONCERNS… Fred is growing in organization this morning in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The system will likely make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast on Monday night as a tropical storm. The latest cone of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center continues to show a likely landfall point somewhere along the southeast Mississippi, Alabama, or northwest Florida coast. Most of the impacts with Fred will be along and east of the center of circulation.

TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS – FRED… 3PM Monday to 3PM Tuesday is now the 24 hour window when impacts from Fred will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Unfortunately, the latest forecast calls for Fred to make landfall at night. That is not a certainty at this point, but most of the guidance shows Fred making landfall at some point Monday night. I know many folks (including yours truly) would much rather deal with a situation like this in the daytime. I will be up all day and all night, keeping you up-to-date in the RedZone Weather app.

GREATEST TORNADO RISK MONDAY P.M. INTO TUESDAY… Our local area is expected to mostly be on the eastern side of Fred as the storm moves north. This means that a risk of tornadoes may develop Monday P.M. into Tuesday A.M. Tropical-induced tornadoes typically do not last long and usually don’t do much damage. There are exceptions to that general idea, however, just like what we saw a few weeks ago when an EF2-rated tornado was on the ground for 22 miles and devastated many homes in East Brewton and Brewton. Please have a way to get urgent tornado warnings Monday into Tuesday and join me in live, nonstop tornado warning coverage if we get warnings for our local area.

GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AT THE COAST, BUT NOT LIKELY INLAND… Fred likely will not be a major wind event for inland areas of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Breezy conditions, yes. Widespread, major damaging winds, no. Gusty winds of 30+ mph may happen at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Wind gusts offshore will likely exceed 50 mph. it is a totally different story inland though. Typically, tropical storms of this stature simply aren’t big wind makers for inland communities. I expect Fred to be no exception to this.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES… Tropical Storm Grace is now in the eastern Caribbean Sea, located very near the northernmost of the Lesser Antilles. Grace continues to have maximum sustained winds of 40 to 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Grace is expected to move over Hispaniola early this week, likely taking a very similar path to what happened with Fred a few days ago. All of the coastline of Haiti and the Dominican Republic are now involved in a Tropical Storm Watch or a Tropical Storm Warning.

GRACE EXPECTED TO ENTER GULF OF MEXICO IN DAYS AHEAD… A large ridge of high pressure will continue to funnel Grace off to the west-northwest over the next few days. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Grace to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Model guidance diverges considerably in the future potential paths for Grace beyond this point, thus it is far too early to rule out impacts or indicate likely impacts in our local area just yet. Please check back in over the next few days for updates.

SCATTERED STORMS TODAY… Locally, we will have a round of rain and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon into this evening just like the last few days. High temperatures will be in the low-90s. Widespread severe weather is not expected today, but some of the storms may be briefly strong at times with gusty winds, torrential downpours of rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning being the main concerns.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted later today. Have a good Sunday morning!

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