4:15PM August 28, 2021

PROJECTED PATH OF IDA SHIFTS EAST EVER SO SLIGHTLY; STORM SURGE WARNING FOR MOBILE BAY… The projected path for Hurricane Ida has shifted to the east ever so slightly on this Saturday evening. This shift in the path represents a slightly worse outcome for the New Orleans metro area as the eastern eyewall of Ida will likely move right over the city tomorrow night. While the landfall point will likely be near Grand Isle, Louisiana or just east of there near the Mouth of the Mississippi River, impacts will extend WELL beyond the landfall point and beyond the cone of uncertainty. Impacts from Hurricane Ida will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida from Sunday evening, through Monday, and perhaps into the early morning hours of Tuesday. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Alabama coast. More details below.

NEW: ISN’T A TRACK SHIFT TO THE EAST BAD FOR OUR AREA? At this point, no. Unless a more pronounced, significant track shift to the east happens (which is not likely and not expected at this point), local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be exactly as outlined in my highly detailed, previous post from earlier this afternoon. You can see specifically what we are expecting from Ida in your hometown at this link by scrolling to your specific county in the post: https://www.facebook.com/rzweather/posts/1964816160343380

NEW: LOCAL IMPACTS – TIMING… The main impacts from Hurricane Ida in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from Sunday evening at 6PM through Monday evening at 6PM. That is an entire 24 hour period, meaning this will be a long event when tornado warnings may be possible locally. There may be an additional 12 hour window from 6PM Monday to 6AM Tuesday when heavy rain and a lower-end tornado risk happens. Please have a way to get urgent tornado warnings Sunday night before you go to sleep. We all need something that will wake us up if a warning is issued for our particular locations.

NEW: STORM SURGE WARNING FOR ALABAMA COAST & MOBILE BAY… A Storm Surge Warning was previously in effect for much of Louisiana and the Mississippi Coast. Now, the National Hurricane Center has extended the Storm Surge Warning to now include all parts of Mobile Bay and the Alabama coast. Projected storm surge for the western shore of Mobile Bay will likely be in the 2-5 feet range. Projected storm surge for the Alabama beaches and areas near Dauphin Island will be in the 2-4 feet range. That could easily prompt a closure of the Causeway between Mobile and Baldwin counties.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – HURRICANE IDA… Tornadoes and other impacts will be possible in our local area long after the center of the hurricane makes landfall in Louisiana as Ida is expected to turn north and ultimately northeast after landfall. Local impacts are detailed below:

– Tornadoes will be possible across the region Sunday evening, Sunday night, and into Monday. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings!

– Heavy rain at times that could lead to flash flooding. The greatest chance of flash flooding will happen near the Alabama coast and over west Alabama.

– Wind gusts of 30-50 mph near the Alabama coast with breezy conditions (15-35 mph wind gusts) inland and across northwest Florida.

– Storm surge in Mobile Bay is currently expected to be in the 2-4 feet range. Storm surge near Dauphin Island and the Mississippi Sound of 4-7 feet may be possible. The more dangerous 7+ feet storm surge will likely happen to our west across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.

– All coastal hazards, including dangerous rip currents, high waves, and even minor coastal flooding will be possible locally. One man passed away Friday evening due to rip currents near Opal Beach, FL near Navarre. Please stay out of the Gulf today and in the days ahead.

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Live video this evening around 7:30PM. May be a bit before or a bit after that time. Please join me then for the latest information. Have a nice evening!

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