6:53AM September 6, 2021

P.M. LABOR DAY STORMS; TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN GULF TO MOVE NORTH… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. No widespread severe weather issues are expected today, but some of the storms may be rowdy at times, with loud thunder, cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rain being the main concerns. High temperatures today will be near the 90 degree mark. We continue to track a weak, disorganized tropical disturbance situated in the southern Gulf of Mexico very near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Chances of development into a tropical storm remain at approximately 1 in 3, or near a 30% chance. This system will move north toward the northern Gulf Coast later this week. There is a low-end chance this system may become a tropical storm before likely moving onshore in the Florida Panhandle. Regardless of if formal development happens, heavy rain will be possible at times on Wednesday into Thursday across our local area. I’ve got your full forecast rundown for Labor Day below.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AHEAD DUE TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE… This morning, it seems like the impacts from Invest 91L, the tropical disturbance slated to move near or just south of our area, will be fairly limited. Regardless of if formal development into a named tropical storm happens, this system will bring our area higher rain chances on Wednesday and an increased risk of rip currents at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Beyond that, it seems like other impacts may be unlikely. Model guidance continues to struggle with the overall development of this system, thus more forecast changes may be possible in the days ahead. Please check back in for updates in the days ahead.

INVEST 91L REMAINS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED… Thunderstorms associated with Invest 91L, the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf, remain quite disorganized this morning. Here is the tropical discussion from the National Hurricane Center concerning 91L this morning: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding waters are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Locally heavy rains are likely to continue through tonight over that area. The system is forecast to move slowly northward or northeastward over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur, they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States beginning midweek, and some development will be possible once it emerges over the Atlantic waters by late this week.”

HURRICANE LARRY TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA… Hurricane Larry is a large, major hurricane packing maximum winds near 125 mph this morning. The center of Larry is located about 785 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles or about 1,135 miles southeast of Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Larry will pass a few hundred miles east of Bermuda later this week as the storm recurves northeast into cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. While no significant, direct U.S. impacts are expected due to Larry, the major hurricane is expected to cause dangerous high waves and rip currents along the U.S. East Coast this week into this weekend.

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See all the details in your Labor Day Monday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice day!

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