7:14PM September 7, 2021

INCREASING CHANCE OF A BRIEF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR SOUTH… The tropical disturbance (Invest 91L) we have been tracking in the Gulf of Mexico for several days appears to be a bit more organized this evening. The National Hurricane Center now indicates there is a 50% chance of a tropical storm developing over the next 48 hours ahead of this system making landfall somewhere along the coast of the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend region between Destin and Tampa. Regardless of if formal development happens, impacts for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be limited to heavy rain at times Wednesday into Thursday and an increased risk of dangerous rip currents at local beaches. If the system becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name “Mindy.” A few more Tuesday evening forecast notes are below.

50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO TROPICAL STORM… The latest tropical discussion from the National Hurricane Center highlights the potential for tropical development in the Gulf over the next 48 hours. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.”

LOCAL IMPACTS UPDATE – INVEST 91L… No significant impacts are expected from Invest 91L as the system moves northeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico, even if the system becomes a named tropical storm. Heavy rain will be likely at times on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Nuisance-type flooding may be possible in parts of northwest Florida, while the greater risk of flash flooding will happen further to our east in the Florida Panhandle region. Since our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be on the western side of this developing system, we are not expecting tornadoes or high wind issues at this time.

I know a lot of folks have hurricane and tropical weather anxiety. This storm is not one to put a lot of concern or worry into, however, as significant local impacts are not expected. Rain at times, yes. Big issues, NO.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a wonderful Tuesday evening!

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