HEAVY RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND… Rain and thunderstorms will continue to be likely throughout the day on this Thursday. Flash flooding will quickly become an issue closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida coast where some spots had upwards of 9+ inches of rain yesterday. Fortunately, it appears most of the greater dynamics have faded and the overall tornado risk today remains quite low. More rain is ahead on Friday and into the weekend as the relentless Gulf “fire hose” of moisture continues. I’ve got all of your Thursday morning forecast details below.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL TOMORROW… The National Weather Service maintains a Flash Flood Watch for several local counties valid until tomorrow evening due to the ongoing risk of flash flooding in our local area. This Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), and Washington counties in south Alabama. Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties are included in northwest Florida.
2 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN LIKELY… Some spots had upwards of 10 (!) inches of rainfall yesterday alone. We are expecting an additional 2-3″ of rain across much of the region today and tomorrow with isolated higher rain amounts of 4 to 5 inches closer to the immediate coast. Unfortunately, the higher rain amounts are likely to happen in the same areas that had the bulk of the rainfall yesterday, thus flash flooding will be an ongoing, serious concern.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS MOVING EAST… Nicholas remains a pesky tropical depression this morning with the center of circulation located about 90 miles south-southeast of Alexandria, Louisiana. The circulation is basically stationary, thus one of the reasons we are continuing to observe extreme amounts of Gulf moisture being funneled into our local area.
90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN ATLANTIC… There remains a high (90%) chance of a new tropical storm forming in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. Note it remains way too early to know if this system will ever directly affect the USA. From NHC: “Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located more than 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, earlier satellite derived winds indicated the system also lacks a well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are still expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.”
70% CHANCE TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA… From NHC: “Shower activity remains poorly organized in association with a broad low pressure system located several hundred miles to the south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week.”
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See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!