CLEARING SKIES & COOLER TODAY; UNSETTLED, WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK… Sunshine returns later today and the good news is the weekend looks sunny as well. Rain quickly comes back into our weather forecast early next week as an unsettled, warm pattern kicks off. High temperatures on this Friday will be in the mid- to upper-50s inland with 60s likely closer to the immediate coast. Lingering clouds this morning will gradually move east and out of our area. I expect most of south Alabama and northwest Florida to have sunshine in place by the end of the day.
CHILLY NIGHTS AHEAD… Overnight lows will be in the mid-30s tonight and again on Saturday night. Clear skies each evening will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s rather quickly after sunset tonight and on Saturday night. Some spots north of US84 may briefly hit the freezing mark by 6AM Saturday. Widespread subfreezing temperatures are not expected, however.
RAIN LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK… President’s Day (also known as Washington’s Birthday) on Monday could be wet at times with a few showers being possible across the region. Showers will also be possible Monday night and again on Tuesday. For now, it appears surface-based instability will be lacking to the point that even thunderstorms will probably not happen. Thus, no severe weather issues are expected on Monday or Tuesday.
STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… A warm front is expected to move northward across the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, thus allowing moist, Gulf air to stream in from the south. This will allow instability values to rise on Wednesday, meaning we may have a few thunderstorms around. Right now, severe weather probabilities on Wednesday seem rather low.
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See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
Clearing skies are expected on this Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-50s. Nice, mostly sunny weekend on tap! pic.twitter.com/XH4Hg8iuxV
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 18, 2022
Showers and storms are now moving into Andalusia, River Falls, Gantt, Loango, Jay, Molino, Gateswood, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Point Clear, and Dauphin Island.
This decaying line of storms will continue to move southeast across northwest Florida over the next few hours. pic.twitter.com/ZBmvuktdWw
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 18, 2022
WEAKENING STORMS INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS ENDING… Good news as we get into the overnight hours! Thunderstorms rumbling through southwest Alabama remain weak and continue to weaken. That means the overall severe weather risk is rapidly ending. The stronger atmospheric dynamics continue to move northeast and away from our area. Our local area is very fortunate this weather system has caused no damage in the southern part of the state. Central Alabama is a different story. The National Weather Service in Birmingham will dispatch at least 3 storm survey crews to assess tornado damage in various counties in the central part of Alabama.
WHAT TO EXPECT – THROUGH 3AM… Over the next several hours, the advancing line of storms currently moving through parts of Butler, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, and Mobile counties will move southeast into northwest Florida and Covington County, AL. Occasional lightning and thunder will be possible. Strong wind gusts (30-40+ mph) are not completely out of the question just yet. Showers and storms will continue to gradually weaken. Rain totals will generally be between one quarter of an inch to an inch of rainfall in total across our local area. The overall tornado risk is now at zero across west Alabama behind the advancing, decaying line of thunderstorms. Out ahead of the line of storms, the risk of a tornado is now exceptionally low, if not zero in most spots.
COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT… The cold front responsible for the severe weather setup today will move across our region in the overnight hours. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s across inland areas and in the low-60s closer to the immediate beach zones.
I will have your next full forecast video and text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Friday morning. Have a nice evening!