HEAVY RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND; LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY… Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Saturday and again on Sunday. Most of the storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours each day. While there is no significant tornado risk this weekend, some of the pop-up thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, hail up to quarter size, torrential downpours of rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few severe thunderstorm warnings may be needed at times, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, on Saturday and again on Sunday. The attached graphic highlights the projected radar off of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model valid at 3PM on Saturday.

NO WAY TO KNOW SPECIFIC TIMING OF STORMS… Pop-up, pulse type thunderstorms are incredibly challenging to forecast. It is seemingly impossible to predict exactly when and where storms will specifically fire up. This means it is truly impossible to know in advance which communities will have heavy rain at times on Saturday and again on Sunday. MOST of the showers and thunderstorms that happen this weekend will happen in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Why? Because that is when the highest amounts of heat content will exist in the atmosphere. Some communities may have NO rain at all this weekend, but I expect most of us to have rain at some point or another. I will have radar updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.

VERY, VERY LOW RISK OF TORNADOES… Let me be abundantly clear: The tornado risk is at or near zero across our region on Saturday and on Sunday. Summertime storms are notorious for occasionally producing downbursts that can knock down a few trees and cause localized damage. Tornadoes in the summer months are fairly rare in our area, outside of tropical threats and hurricanes. No need for any “tornado stress” this weekend, but we do encourage everyone to have a way to hear warnings in case a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is posted for your community.

LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR ALL LOCAL COMMUNITIES… The Storm Prediction Center includes ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Saturday. This means that a few isolated severe storms may be possible, but the overall risk of severe weather remains fairly low. It should be vehemently emphasized that this Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone is in place due to the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. There is no elevated tornado risk on Saturday.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have radar updates posted throughout the weekend in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice weekend!

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