FEW STORMS NEAR NAVARRE… Isolated thunderstorms have popped up this afternoon near Navarre, Fort Walton Beach, and Hurlburt Field. These small storms are slowly drifting southwest.

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SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These pop-up thunderstorms will be capable of producing loud thunder, cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather, however, is not expected today or in the days ahead. We are transitioning back to more of a typical summertime pattern this week. Heat index values will be closer to the 100 degree mark (as opposed to near 110, like what happened last week). High temperatures will be closer to the 90 degree mark. Other than the seasonal storms popping up each day, we are keeping tabs on two tropical systems, one in the Gulf and one in the central Atlantic Ocean. A few more Monday morning forecast details are below.

LOW-END CHANCE OF BRIEF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN WESTERN GULF… An area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually move southwest in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center has flagged this area with a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm before moving onshore, potentially in Texas, later this week. Regardless of if this system becomes a named tropical storm, impacts will likely be limited to increased rain chances for parts of Texas and Louisiana. No local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

INVEST 94L IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING WEST… There is a high chance (80%) a tropical storm will form over the next few days as a tropical wave (branded as INVEST 94L) continues moving west in the central Atlantic Ocean. Right now, this tropical wave is at a very low latitude. We note many of the global weather models show this system continuing a consistent westward movement, perhaps as far west as Central America. IF that scenario happens, no local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida regardless of if formal development happens. From NHC: “Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.”

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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MULTIPLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES BUT NO IMMINENT LOCAL THREATS… We’re tracking two separate tropical disturbances this evening that have chances of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. One tropical disturbance is centered just to our south across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center indicates this system has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm later this week closer to the Texas coast. Local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected, regardless of if formal development happens. In addition, a tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm as a continued westward movement happens. Early model indications point to no local impacts from that particular system either. Good news! Locally, we’re settling into a more seasonal summer pattern with a high chance of pop-up storms in each of the next 7 days. A few more Sunday evening forecast notes are below.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE BRIEF TROPICAL STORM TO FORM IN WESTERN GULF… An area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually move southwest in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center has flagged this area with a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm before moving onshore, potentially in Texas, later this week. Regardless of if this system becomes a named tropical storm, impacts will likely be limited to increased rain chances for parts of Texas and Louisiana. No local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida.

INVEST 94L IN THE ATLANTIC… There is a high chance (80%) a tropical storm will form over the next few days as a tropical wave (branded as INVEST 94L) continues moving west in the central Atlantic Ocean. Right now, this tropical wave is at a very low latitude. We note many of the global weather models show this system continuing a consistent westward movement, perhaps as far west as Central America. IF that scenario happens, no local impacts will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida regardless of if formal development happens. Here is the 8PM discussion from the National Hurricane Center: “Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.”

MORE P.M. STORMS IN THE DAYS AHEAD… Locally, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the norm across south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next 7-10 days. If your specific hometown did not have rain today, you probably will get some before the end of the week. Odds are, you’ll have multiple rounds of rain before the end of the week! Storms will be rather numerous Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. None of the next 5 days have any significant severe weather issues noted, but some of the storms may be “loud and proud” at times. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s on Monday.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Sunday evening!

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STORMS MOVING WEST… Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop and drift westward this evening. Heavy rain is happening near Riverview, Berrydale, Jay, Jackson, Toddtown, and Excel. Gusty winds remain possible in the strongest of the storms.

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