UNCOMMON “BACKDOOR MCS” POTENTIAL PROMPTS SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON WEDNESDAY… Never say “never” in the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida! A complex of thunderstorms known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is expected to develop to our east across parts of Georgia, east Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle and move west into our area on Wednesday evening. This may seem counterintuitive to the norm (where storms move FROM west TO east). These storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts that may knock down a few trees across the region. The Storm Prediction Center now includes ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Have a way to hear warnings Wednesday evening!

NOT A TYPO – STORMS TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST… Nearly always, we see organized thunderstorms (particularly in the spring, fall, and winter when storms are associated with passing mid-latitude cyclones or cold fronts) that move from west to east. Pop-up thunderstorms in the summertime are totally different and are pulse-type thunderstorms that are usually not associated with an organized weather system. “Once in a blue moon,” however, we will get a system like what we are forecasting tomorrow where an organized, potentially severe, complex of storms moves in from the east. These storms will likely develop over parts of Georgia tomorrow in the late afternoon or early evening hours before arriving in our area after 6PM.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY EVENING… General, pop-up thunderstorms will be possible first on Wednesday from 11AM to 6PM. These storms will be under severe limits in most cases. The severe weather risk on Wednesday will be from 6PM to Midnight with the main window being from 8PM to 11PM. We encourage everyone to have a way to hear warnings on Wednesday into Wednesday night. While the overall tornado risk remains very low, this organized band of storms could produce straight line winds that could easily knock down a few trees across the region.

MAIN CONCERNS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & HAIL… The overall tornado risk with the severe weather setup on Wednesday remains very, very low. The main concerns in the mesoscale convective system (MCS) slated to move from east to west tomorrow evening will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of a quarter. There is a real chance the leading edge of this complex of storms knocks down a few trees across the region on Wednesday evening. Have a way to hear warnings and please heed the severe thunderstorm warnings that are issued tomorrow evening!

TROPICAL UPDATE… There continues to be a 40% chance of a new tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Here is the 2PM EDT discussion from the National Hurricane Center: “Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a small area of low pressure has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could become a tropical depression later this week if the disturbance remains over water. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow if necessary. Regardless of development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this week.”

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted throughout the afternoon and evening in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Tuesday evening!

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