30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF; HEAVY RAIN EVENT AHEAD… There is about a 1 in 3 chance that a named tropical storm forms in the northern Gulf later this week. Regardless of if this storm takes a name or not, local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida ARE expected. Heavy rain and numerous thunderstorms are likely later this week and into the upcoming weekend. The latest rainfall projections show upwards of a foot of total rainfall happening near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. In addition, some scenarios could cause a tornado risk later this week, although confidence in that idea remains low for now. The big takeaway on this Monday evening is that we have a major rainfall event ahead that could produce potentially widespread and significant flash flooding issues. It won’t matter too much whether this is caused by a named storm or “just a weak area of low pressure” that remains unnamed.

PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON IF IT HAS A NAME… That is the headline being disseminated by our local National Weather Service office about this upcoming weather event. The impacts from this system will probably be quite similar whether or not this system becomes a named tropical storm (and takes a name) or not. As highlighted by the local National Weather Service office, three big question marks remain: 1. Will enough convection (storms) consolidate near the area of low pressure that is set to develop? 2. IF an area of low pressure forms, where does that happen and how soon will the low interact with land areas? 3. Will the system move toward our area or move into areas farther east or west? No one, unfortunately, is able to answer any of those questions that are largely contingent upon one another. Regardless, a heavy rain event is expected across our region later this week. Flash flooding and coastal hazards, including dangerous and widespread rip currents, will be possible.

10-12″ OF RAINFALL AHEAD NEAR THE COAST; 3-6″ OF RAIN INLAND… Current projections show a substantial rain event ahead for south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next 5-7 days, regardless of if this tropical system becomes a named tropical storm. Right now, the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows coastal Alabama and northwest Florida getting upwards of 10 to 12 inches of rainfall in total. 7 to 10 inches of rain is likely near the Interstate 10 corridor. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is likely farther inland.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS… When heavy rainfall sets up and repeats over the same areas, flash flooding will quickly become a concern later this week. This heavy rain event will happen in areas where soils will already be fairly saturated due to the daily deluge of pop-up storms that will have happened this week. I am particularly concerned about the flash flood setup later this week in coastal communities and in areas south of I-10.

TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE IN SOME SCENARIOS… It remains a bit too early to ascertain if a tornado risk will happen locally later in the week or into the weekend. If the system in the Gulf is on the stronger side (weak to moderate tropical storm), then the tornado risk may be greater across the local area. If, however, the system remains disorganized and messy, there is a real chance a tornado risk may not set up at all. Tropical-induced tornadoes generally don’t last long, but can be impactful and damaging. I will have more information about the tornado risk in the days ahead. Nothing to stress over for now.

30% CHANCE OF A NAMED STORM FORMING… The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 30% chance of a tropical storm forming in the northern Gulf. Here is the latest discussion as of 8PM: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible if it can remain offshore while it meanders near the northern Gulf coast through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days.”

APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have your next detailed forecast video and text discussion posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Monday evening!

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