SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP… Small showers and thunderstorms are developing late this morning across parts of Covington, Okaloosa, Walton, and Santa Rosa counties.
More storms will pop up over the next few hours.
30% chance of a tropical storm forming in the northern Gulf over the next 5 days… Increased rain chances ahead for parts of the Deep South later this week and into the weekend. pic.twitter.com/FSaygKqNEH
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 11, 2022
Rain chances will be elevated each day this week, but particularly later this week, as an area of low pressure develops in the northern Gulf and flings moisture into our region. Wet days ahead! ⛈ pic.twitter.com/eYCWa8azf7
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) July 11, 2022
POP-UP STORMS TODAY; HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK… Scattered thunderstorms are likely to pop up across the region on this Monday. The pop-up storms expected today, tomorrow, and Wednesday will be the typical “splash and dash” storms of summer, some of which may be briefly strong and produce gusty winds. Later this week and into the upcoming weekend is when an area of low pressure may become a tropical storm in the northern Gulf of Mexico. That system could cause impacts in our local area, although it is too early to nail down specifics. High temperatures today will be in the upper-80s and near 90 with heat index values closer to 100 degrees.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest a tropical storm may form in the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico later this week or into the upcoming weekend. Local impacts, specifically heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, will be possible. A tornado risk may also develop, but that confidence in that idea is less certain as of now. More about impacts is below. Here is the latest info from NHC regarding the development potential:
MAIN CONCERN: HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND… While it is impossible to know for sure if a named tropical storm will develop later this week, it certainly seems like heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding will be the main hazard that sets up. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is calling for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total across our area over the next 5-6 days. Greater rain amounts are likely closer to the immediate coast. Flash flooding will also become a concern later this week into the weekend.
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK… While it remains too early for hazard specifics, it is possible that a tornado risk may develop across parts of the Deep South next week IF this tropical system develops into a named tropical storm. No way to know exactly where this risk will maximize or setup just yet. Stay tuned for more details in the days ahead.
SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great start to your week!
