ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL NEXT WEEK… Heat relief is on the way, but not before a hot few days on Wednesday into Thursday. The map attached highlights projected low temperatures a week from today in the early morning hours of Tuesday, September 27. Most spots locally are projected to be in the 50s. Before we get to the refreshing cooler air, high temperatures tomorrow (Wednesday) into Thursday will easily be in the mid-90s. Some spots may hit 97° or 98° briefly on Thursday afternoon with heat index values in the low-100s. The weekend won’t be QUITE as hot (still hot, though, with highs near 90°) ahead of a frontal boundary arriving Monday.

TROPICS ARE ACTIVE, BUT NO THREAT THIS WEEK LOCALLY… Hurricane Fiona is a major hurricane, packing winds in excess of 115 mph as the storm barrels north toward Bermuda. Fiona will never be a direct threat to Alabama or northwest Florida. Significant issues will be possible in Bermuda followed by the Canadian maritimes (Nova Scotia and Newfoundland) later this week and into the weekend due to Fiona. Tropical Storm Gaston formed earlier this afternoon in the far northern Atlantic Ocean well away from land. Gaston will not be a threat to land areas over the next 5 days. The one other system in the tropics worth nothing this evening is a tropical wave branded as INVEST 98L, located in the central Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. 98L will move west in the days ahead, likely becoming a tropical storm later this week in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

The forecast info in this post discussing 98L (link below) remains current as of 7:30PM CDT on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. Note that the system now has an 80% chance of becoming a named tropical storm. Link here.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates on this developing tropical system posted over the next few days here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to check in with me in the free app for the very latest information. Have a good Tuesday evening!

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NEW TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA; COULD MOVE TOWARD GULF… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance of a new tropical storm developing over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The overall pattern suggests a likely movement toward the western Caribbean Sea in the next 5-7 days. The overall environment ahead of this system points to strengthening (detailed below). Despite the craziness that is already ensuing with folks posting single run model images left and right, be advised that NO ONE can tell you exactly when this system will develop or where it will ultimately move. Yes, the pattern is favorable for development and the overall synoptic setup points to a tropical system in the vicinity of the western Caribbean or southern Gulf in about one week. Beyond that, plenty of question marks remain. At this stage, no need to stress or worry. This is simply something to be aware of over the next few days. I will have plenty more updates posted in the RedZone Weather app and on our social platforms. More details below.

STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY… What is concerning is the lack of obstacles ahead for this developing system, meaning other than land interaction, I do not see many factors that will prohibit strengthening. Sea surface temperatures in the western Caribbean Sea are in the 85-88° range. Unlike the last several weeks when atmospheric shear has been anomalously high at times, the shear out ahead of this system is forecast to remain more moderate in nature. These two factors could aid in the development of this tropical system.

LONG RANGE UNCERTAINTY… While you’re almost certainly going to see wild, crazy model runs over the next few days, let me emphasize emphatically that NO ONE can tell you exactly where this developing tropical system will end up. The overall, large scale pattern favors a general westward movement over the next 2-3 days as the tropical wave moves through the Caribbean Sea. After that, the general model consensus points to a northwesterly movement near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Beyond that, no way to know specifics. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico region (from Mexico all the way over to Florida) should keep a close eye on this developing tropical system over the next few days. No reason to be scared or panic – situations like this are all too common in the peak part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app.

HYPE & CLICKBAITERS OUT OF CONTROL… Hurricane season has been remarkably quiet for the Gulf of Mexico region over the last several weeks. The 2020 and 2021 seasons were both exceptionally active. Emerging research suggests the hyperactivity of the last two seasons created complacency and “storm fatigue” in that we had storm after storm wrecking havoc and causing many issues in MANY communities across the Atlantic Basin, including right here at home in Alabama and northwest Florida. It seems, unfortunately, “the pendulum” has swung far in the other direction over the last several weeks. I have seen countless professional meteorologists and purveyors of “weather pages” across social media use language that is seemingly “wishing” for big, bad hurricanes to happen. The lack of storms over the last few weeks during the peak of hurricane season has created a vacuum where many folks post the latest weather model runs (sometimes 2 weeks out! – insane) to drum up clicks, likes, and fear. I am actively documenting this phenomenon as we speak. You’ve heard me say it many times before – don’t feed the trolls. “Friends don’t let friends share fake news,” and unfortunately, there is a seemingly endless supply of fake news garbage posts going around ahead of the tropics likely becoming more active.

HURRICANE FIONA MOVING NORTH… Hurricane Fiona is centered only 40 miles north-northwest of Grand Turk Island in the Turks & Caicos this afternoon. Fiona is a major hurricane packing maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. Fiona is moving north-northwest at about 9 mph. The good news for the continental United States is that Fiona will NOT cause any direct impacts, other than large waves and rip currents along the Atlantic coastline in the days ahead. Significant (potential major hurricane) impacts will be possible in Bermuda Thursday into Friday due to Hurricane Fiona. In addition, impacts from Fiona are likely in parts of maritime Canada this weekend, specifically in parts of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

T.D. 8 IN ATLANTIC; LIKELY TO BECOME T.S. GASTON… Tropical Depression Eight formed in the open waters of the north-central Atlantic Ocean earlier today. TD8 is well away from any land areas at the moment. The center of the depression is located about 1,110 miles west-southwest of The Azores. The official forecast from NHC calls for TD8 to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. If or when that happens, TD8 will take the name, “Gaston.” TD8/Gaston will continue moving north and northeast in the days ahead and will very likely never be a direct threat to North America.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates on this developing tropical system posted over the next few days here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to check in with me in the free app for the very latest information. Have a nice Tuesday afternoon!

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SUNNY, HOT TUESDAY; MORE HOT TEMPS LATER THIS WEEK… Increasingly hot temperatures are expected on this Tuesday and over the next few days as a dome of high pressure keeps our area dry and devoid of any significant storms. High temperatures will peak in the mid-90s this afternoon across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Temperatures will increase ever so slightly over the next few days. Some locales may hit the upper-90s by Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected to persist through the end of the week.

HURRICANE FIONA LIKELY TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR BERMUDA… Hurricane Fiona continues to gradually become more organized as the system moves north in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A Hurricane Warning continues for the Turks & Caicos this morning as the core of Fiona continues to move north, away from the Dominican Republic. Significant impacts from Hurricane Fiona will be possible in Bermuda later this week as the center of the storm is expected to pass very close to the island commonwealth. Depending on the exact future track, major hurricane impacts will be possible in Bermuda on Thursday evening into Friday. Direct local impacts from Fiona will not happen in Alabama or northwest Florida.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center indicates a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles has a 20-30% chance of becoming a tropical storm as a general westward movement continues. Long range models show a fairly consistent signal that this tropical wave may ultimately move toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about a week, thus this will be a system we need to monitor carefully in the days ahead. Too early to speculate about Gulf impacts.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

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