8pm EDT June 16 2023: We are still monitoring a tropical wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical depression is now likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.
2-day genesis probability: low (🟡30%)
7-day… pic.twitter.com/YL80poIiXE— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 16, 2023
Golfball size hail is likely happening near Winn in Clarke County, AL. This hail core is moving straight toward Grove Hill. QUICKLY get those vehicles under a carport or garage if you can if you're in Grove Hill. pic.twitter.com/kTNolvKzBm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 16, 2023
TWO MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON… The severe weather threat is about to ramp back up on this Friday evening. We have two, separate rounds of severe storms expected to develop over the next 24 hours. Round 1 has already started across southeast Mississippi with two supercells forming that have produced up to baseball size hail over the last hour near Richton. More thunderstorms are expected to fire up across our local area over the next several hours. This round of storms will last until the very early morning hours of Saturday. Have a way to hear warnings overnight as damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes will be possible. The second round of storms will happen on Saturday, probably around midday or the early afternoon hours. All the details are below.
DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET… We have reached a point where it is important for me to communicate directly that it is critical to not let your guard down, which (quite frankly) would be understandable after we have endured wave after wave of severe storms over the last few days. Other than the Hurricane Sally sequence in 2020, this has been the most exhausting weather week of my 5-6 year meteorological career so far. I am exhausted, I know MANY of you are exhausted, but we must stay in tune with what is happening – and what is happening is at least two more rounds of severe weather, one this evening into tonight and another on Saturday during the daytime hours. Thank you, thank you, thank you to everyone who has helped get the info out concerning severe storms over the last few days. Please continue to help me do that as there are so many folks who choose not to watch news and weather. Mark my word: We WILL get through this together, even if we have a few more severe weather events ahead of us.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY… We have two distinct rounds of severe storms likely in the hours ahead. The first event will be scattered severe storms that will happen from 7PM to 3AM tonight. Very large hail, perhaps as large as tennis ball or baseball size in some cases, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and a tornado or two will be possible. We will have a lull in activity, most likely, before a more serious severe weather setup happens during the daytime hours of Saturday. 9AM to 5PM will be the window for severe storms on Saturday. The event on Saturday may be a MCS (mesoscale convective system), perhaps and unfortunately similar to what happened earlier this morning. Widespread damaging wind gusts may become possible along with a few tornadoes and large hail up to golfball size.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TILL MIDNIGHT… The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that includes much of the western half of Alabama and northwest Florida. Locally, we have 10 out of our 12 primary coverage counties involved in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch valid until midnight: Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Okaloosa, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. We also note that Choctaw, Marengo, Dallas, Wilcox counties and points north are involved in this ongoing Severe Thundestorm Watch.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS POSSIBLE… Tonight, it looks like very large hail and gusty winds will be the convective hazards of concern. While I cannot rule out a tornado or two, I suspect large hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding will be the issues across our region in the scattered severe storms that develop. Tomorrow (Saturday), the tornado risk will increase as will the risk of damaging straight line wind gusts. I am also quite concerned about the potential for flash flooding, as storms yesterday and this morning absolutely hammered parts of our region. 18+ inches of rainfall happened in parts of the Pensacola metro with high rain amounts also observed in parts of Santa Rosa and Baldwin counties. DO NOT drive over a water-covered roadway if you encounter one. “Turn around, don’t drown.”
MORE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Again, please don’t shoot the messenger, but more thunderstorms are likely Sunday and again on Monday. There is a chance for some of these thunderstorms to be strong or severe with at least some tornado threat as well. Let’s get through tonight and tomorrow and then we will more heavily focus on Sunday and Monday.
STATIONARY FRONT & UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CAUSING THIS MESS… I have had several questions over the last several hours from folks wondering exactly what is driving this nearly constant barrage of severe weather over the last few days. We have a stationary frontal boundary positioned near and just north of our area, acting as a zone for storm systems (called shortwaves) to be funneled right over our area from the northwest. The upper-level flow responsible for this is expected to shift somewhat as we get into next week, thus likely helping to (eventually) stop the seemingly never-ending fire hose of severe storms. It’s not going to happen today or tomorrow, but the pattern WILL change in the next week.
TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC MAY DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM… “A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle portions of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.” That is the latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center on this system. This system is on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, close to the western coast of Africa. Regardless of if formal development happens, no local impacts are expected over the next 7 days.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have MANY more updates in the hours ahead in the RedZone Weather app. Join me in live video coverage if tornado warnings are needed locally. Have a nice Friday evening and please stay safe!
A new Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Clarke and northern Washington counties. This includes Coffeeville, Salitpa, Toddtown, Grove Hill, Chilton, Winn, Zimco, McEntrye, Bigbee, Frankville, and Silver Cross.
Large hail up to quarter size and damaging winds likely. pic.twitter.com/j2rO8FJl4a
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 16, 2023
