With KMOB reporting 100 degrees just before noon, we have officially broken the record streak for days in a row of 100+. This is day 6, the previous record was 5 days set back in 1980. #MOBwx #ALwx
— Michael Mugrage (@muggiewx) August 27, 2023
With KMOB reporting 100 degrees just before noon, we have officially broken the record streak for days in a row of 100+. This is day 6, the previous record was 5 days set back in 1980. #MOBwx #ALwx
— Michael Mugrage (@muggiewx) August 27, 2023
This plot shows the multi-model ensemble mean for Idalia over the last 4 runs.
The center line looks consistent, but don’t mistake it for a sign of high confidence in the forecast track — the ellipse representing ensemble position spread is still quite large. pic.twitter.com/bkzvs3onkd
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 27, 2023
TD10 strengthened this morning into Tropical Storm #Idalia. Cone of uncertainty now extends from Tyndall AFB on the west to Tampa on the east.
Idalia will likely be a hurricane at landfall, projected to happen on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/9QLIkqnz18
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 27, 2023
Tropical Depression 10 has drifted south overnight. The system could become a tropical storm at any time today. TD10 is forecast to start moving slowly to the north on Monday before approaching Florida, most likely in the Big Bend region, on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/sTDHvuR6kk
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 27, 2023
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY… This map, generated by the local National Weather Service, highlights the projected high temperatures and rain chances for today. High temperatures will again be at or above 100 degrees in many spots across inland areas of south Alabama later today with heat index values in excess of 108°. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to pop up in the afternoon and evening hours. Not every community will have rain before the end of the day, but some inevitably will.
T.D. 10 FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN… Tropical Depression 10 is bringing gusty winds to parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early on this Sunday morning. TD10 is forecast to strengthen over the next few days. Landfall is likely in Florida, likely between Panama City and Tampa, as a hurricane late Tuesday evening or on Wednesday.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – SOUTH ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… No changes to report in terms of expected local impacts. Most, if not all of the major global models, continue to show the center of TD10/Idalia moving to the east of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. This would put our local area on the better/west side of the storm as it moves north and ultimately northeast. An increased risk of rip currents will happen over the next several days at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. For now, there is no discernible threat of tornadoes, high winds, or flooding across south Alabama or northwest Florida. If that changes, I’ll be sure to let you know. Interests in the Florida Panhandle region, the Big Bend region, and north Florida should pay extremely close attention to this developing system over the next few days.
Loud storms have developed this evening in parts of Butler and Conecuh counties in south Alabama. Storms are drifting southwest. pic.twitter.com/L3uYph9u7T
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 26, 2023
A record high temperature of 106 has been set in Mobile today, breaking the old record of 100 set in 1938. This also breaks the all time record high of 105 set back in August of 2000. Pensacola broke a record high today with 105 degrees, breaking the old record of 100 in 2011.
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) August 26, 2023
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN SOUTHERN GULF; IMPACTS LIKELY IN FLORIDA THIS WEEK… Tropical Depression 10 has formed this evening in the far southern Gulf of Mexico with the low-level center of circulation located almost exactly halfway between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba. The first projected path from the National Hurricane Center shows TD10 moving toward the Big Bend region of Florida, with an expected landfall around Wednesday evening. TD10 is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 hours. When that happens, the system will take the name, “Idalia,” pronounced “ee-DAL-ya.”
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – SOUTH ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Most, if not all of the major global models, continue to show the center of TD10/Idalia moving to the east of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. This would put our local area on the better/west side of the storm as it moves north and ultimately northeast. An increased risk of rip currents will happen over the next several days at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. For now, there is no discernible threat of tornadoes, high winds, or flooding across south Alabama or northwest Florida. If that changes, I’ll be sure to let you know. Interests in the Florida Panhandle region, the Big Bend region, and north Florida should pay extremely close attention to this developing system over the next few days.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MEXICO… A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for extreme western Cuba for the provinces Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for parts of Florida in the next 48 hours or so.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TIED AT MOBILE THIS AFTERNOON… The hottest temperature ever recorded in Mobile, AL was 105°. The record was established in the year 2000. The air temperature at Mobile was 105° this afternoon at 2:40PM, tying the all-time record. We have two more days (Sunday and Monday) featuring extremely hot temperatures at or above 100° before we FINALLY have some extended “heat relief” starting on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be around 92° with upper-80s in the forecast for highs on Wednesday. Still will have warm/hot temps around next week but nowhere near the numbers we have been experiencing over the last few weeks!
SPOTTY SHOWERS & STORMS LOCALLY OVER NEXT FEW HOURS… Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region on this Saturday evening. At the time I am producing this update around 4PM, isolated downpours are happening near Brewton, Gosport, Lyeffion, Barnwell, Forest Home, and Sweet Water. Storms will be fairly short-lived and won’t last long for any specific community. These highly isolated storms are certainly providing welcome rainfall. More P.M. pop-up storms will be possible on Sunday. Increased rain chances into Monday and Tuesday locally!
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have plenty more updates over the next several days in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a nice Saturday evening!