ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING… Isolated pop-up storms may happen this afternoon into this evening across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Unfortunately, not everyone will have rain before the end of the day. High temperatures will be in the low-100s.
TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN CARIBBEAN OR SOUTHERN GULF… Chances are increasing that a tropical storm will form in the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates there is now a 70% chance of a tropical storm forming near, just east of, or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. It remains well too early to know exactly where this developing tropical system will end up, however the overall steering flow may eventually push the system into parts of Florida in the middle part of the upcoming week. That is simply one idea on the table and specifics have yet to be ironed out at this point.
70% CHANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM FORMING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA… Environmental parameters support the potential for a strengthening tropical system in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to support tropical formation. The overall wind shear looks to be fairly light across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf. These two factors would support intensification of a tropical storm, if one develops. From NHC: “A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.”
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT… It remains too early to know specific local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida from this developing tropical system. Regardless of if formal development happens, an increased risk of rip currents is expected next week at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. IF, and that is a big IF at this point, the tropical system moved toward the Florida Peninsula, that scenario would likely help to mitigate significant local impacts from this developing tropical system. It remains FAR too early to rule out specific impacts anywhere along the Gulf Coast, however.
P.M. STORMS FRIDAY WITH EXTREME HEAT TO CONTINUE… No real changes in the immediate forecast as Friday is expected to feature more pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will again be in the low-100s in many communities across the region with heat index values closer to 110°.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have a full update on the tropics and the local forecast in the next regularly scheduled forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Thursday evening!
70% chance of a tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf in 5-6 days. Details here: https://t.co/x87b23NrEm pic.twitter.com/2JVAbjcPfc
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 25, 2023
A tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.https://t.co/DboWSR4Ct1 pic.twitter.com/Ts5pgEFVut
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 24, 2023
WEATHER ALERT… Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Calhoun-AL, Clay-AL, Cleburne-AL & Talladega-AL Counties until 6:45 PM.
Product issued by the National Weather Service BMX at 5:58 PM CDT Thursday, August 24, 2023 and is valid until 6:45 PM CDT Thursday, August 24, 2023.
Isolated storms have developed this evening across parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Storms near Daphne, Montrose, Spanish Fort, Belforest, and Seven Hills are pushing westward.
No severe weather risk but there is occasional cloud-to-ground lightning happening. pic.twitter.com/o6Fm16mQOu
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 24, 2023
60% chance of a tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico in the next 5-6 days… pic.twitter.com/Qkt3GJJm9E
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 24, 2023
On this day, 31 years ago, #HurricaneAndrew came ashore in southern #Florida near Homestead packing sustained winds of 165 mph and gusts up to 200 mph. Andrew left a trail of devastation across southern Florida, becoming the most costliest hurricane on record at the time. pic.twitter.com/w7UijCb8hu
— NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) August 24, 2023
@rzweather Two hot days in North Crestview Florida. Tuesday 8/22/2023 high temperature was 100F and Wednesday 8/23/2023 was 102F. FAMU Pharmacy College downtown Crestview hit 99F and 101F on those respective days.
— Car 412 (@HRickover) August 24, 2023
