.@NWSSPC reminds us that tornadoes can also be a threat in rain bands primarily on the northeastern side of a hurricane like #Idalia. These tornadoes can be quite fast-moving within the strong hurricane circulation, so keep emergency alerts enabled and be ready to respond quickly… pic.twitter.com/6Zr7PR89QH
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 30, 2023
TRAVEL ADVISORY… We are advising no travel from south Alabama or northwest Florida on Interstate 10 to Tallahassee and points east after 10PM. Significant impacts are expected from Hurricane Idalia overnight into Wednesday morning, specifically in areas south and east of Tallahassee. Landfall of Idalia is expected in the Big Bend region Wednesday morning.
WEATHER ALERT… Flood Statement issued for Choctaw-AL, Clarke-AL & Washington-AL Counties until 8:30 PM.
Product issued by the National Weather Service MOB at 6:33 PM CDT Tuesday, August 29, 2023 and is valid until 8:30 PM CDT Tuesday, August 29, 2023.
No real changes in the overall thinking concerning the forecast for Hurricane Idalia. The storm is expected to make landfall early Wednesday in the Big Bend region of Florida as a dangerous, major hurricane. Extremely dangerous storm surge and 110+ mph winds expected! pic.twitter.com/Me87R3GV8q
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
This plane also found that #Idalia's central pressure is now falling at a faster pace than it had been in previous hours, indicating that the pace of strengthening may be quickening. This is unfortunately following the expectations of forecasters so far. https://t.co/FQOvXqaOJ3
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 29, 2023
With Gulf conditions deteriorating due to Hurricane Idalia, we have upgraded to Double Red Flags 🚩 🚩 today – Tuesday, Aug. 29. Gulf waters are now closed to the public due to potentially life threatening rip currents/surf. Disobeying could lead to arrest/fine. @spann #alwx pic.twitter.com/BWMIMbIIyy
— City of Orange Beach (@cityorangebeach) August 29, 2023
Just after 5PM, showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move inland across parts of west Alabama, specifically near Thomasville, Wagerville, Leroy, and Jackson.
Rain is also happening across much of Monroe, Conecuh, and Butler counties. pic.twitter.com/gwWSvmZtbB
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
Hurricane #Idalia continues to strengthen & is now a category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph, per the 5PM EDT advisory from NHC.
Big impacts ahead for the Big Bend region of Florida. If you know anyone in a mandatory evac order zone, CALL them & encourage them to GET OUT. pic.twitter.com/mLwuKx1uIY
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
I mentioned earlier how Hurricane Idalia is small size. Look at the size difference between Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Idalia now. Orange is tropical storm winds, deep red is hurricane winds. Despite the small size, it will cause big impacts at landfall. @wvua23 pic.twitter.com/q9vyWnD0Uk
— Richard Scott (@RichardWVUA23) August 29, 2023
A new Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has entered Hurricane #Idalia, finding central pressure has fallen further to 972 mb, indicating strengthening is continuing. The strongest winds (in NE quadrant) probably have not been sampled by the plane yet.
The NW quadrant winds are… pic.twitter.com/tTGpNBNvR7
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 29, 2023
It looks like this latest attempt to wrap convection around the eye may have been successful.
Recon will be in #Idalia in a little while to give us a better idea of the strength of the storm. pic.twitter.com/aJjoHJC2XI
— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) August 29, 2023
Storms continue to gradually move north across the region this afternoon. Heavy rain extends from Milton and Pace northeastward to Crestview and Laurel Hill. This band of storms will move into Wing, Munson, and Allentown shortly.
These storms are not associated with Idalia. pic.twitter.com/9DPUoTnSNL
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this afternoon. Be ready for scattered downpours over the next several hours! pic.twitter.com/N3V7WcKVvd
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
The National Hurricane Center issues storm surge guidance displaying the 'worst case scenario' surge (i.e., surge that has a 1-in-10 chance of happening)
While this clearly is not guaranteed, it is deeply concerning to see the potential inundation of Cedar Key… pic.twitter.com/vhykg8twBL
— Evan Fisher (@EFisherWX) August 29, 2023
Here's what a local meteorologist @rzweather says you need to know about #Hurricane #Idalia:https://t.co/LY518eTOsV#idalia #hurricanes #tropicalstorms #niceville #nwflwx #floridaweather
— Mid Bay News (@MidBayNews) August 29, 2023
At Noon CDT, Hurricane #Idalia continues to organize in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum winds are up to 85 mph with MSLP down to 976 millibars.
Extremely dangerous situation setting up for the Big Bend region of Florida! pic.twitter.com/HwcoMllcxb
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
This was a bone-chilling stat and graphic to find and create on the mid shift. A major hurricane has NEVER made it into Apalachee Bay (Franklin to Dixie County).
An unprecedented event. Leave if you've been told. Rush to finish preparations. https://t.co/mUOzT2lB86
— Cameron Young (he/him) (@wx_cam) August 29, 2023
Hurricane #Idalia will likely be an unprecedented event for many locations in the Florida Big Bend. Looking back through recorded history, NO major hurricanes have ever moved through the Apalachee Bay. When you try to compare this storm to others, DON'T. No one has seen this. pic.twitter.com/m9X8dcarc5
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) August 29, 2023
11AM advisory for Hurricane #Idalia has max. winds now at 85 mph.
Hurricane Warning continues from Indian Pass to Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay.
This will be an unprecedented storm surge and wind event for the Big Bend region. 12+ surge expected! pic.twitter.com/8piHf8Jjlh
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
P.M. STORMS OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… Temperatures will certainly be closer to our seasonal norms over the next 7 days compared to the previous 7 days! Highs closer to 90° with morning lows near 70°. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY TODAY; IDALIA STRENGTHENING AND MOVING NORTH… Quite a bit of rain is expected in the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that develop today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will be around the 90 degree mark this afternoon. Just like yesterday, there is a real chance some communities will get quite a bit of rain while other communities won’t get any rain at all. Thunderstorms that develop today will be capable of producing quite a bit of lightning, loud thunder, heavy rain, and gusty winds. We continue to monitor Idalia, located now in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The system is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall tomorrow (Wednesday) in the Big Bend region of Florida.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – SOUTH ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Confidence is now quite high that no significant, direct impacts will happen due to Tropical Storm Idalia in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Confidence continues to grow that potentially significant impacts will happen in parts of the Big Bend region and North Florida. There is NO discernible threat of tornadoes, high winds, or flooding across south Alabama or northwest Florida due to Tropical Storm Idalia. Our area is expected to be on the “better”/western side of the storm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are LIKELY today into Wednesday across our local area but these are not associated with Idalia. An increased risk of rip currents will happen over the next several days at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.
WHAT TO EXPECT – SOUTH ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Pop-up thunderstorms are likely over the next few days, mostly (although not exclusively) in the afternoon and evening hours. These storms are not associated with Idalia. High temperatures will be lower from where we were last week with most spots peaking in the 88-90° range today and on Wednesday.
WHAT TO EXPECT – FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION… The Florida Panhandle region extends from Walton County eastward to Tallahassee. This includes places like Panama City, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Marianna, Mexico Beach, Wewahitchka, Blountstown, Quincy, Chipley, Miramar Beach, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, and Tallahassee. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Indian Pass south and east down into the Big Bend region and beyond. Significant impacts from Idalia in the Florida Panhandle will MOSTLY be limited to areas near the coast in Gulf, Franklin, and Wakulla counties. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible at times as the core of Idalia passes to the southeast. Tropical storm force winds (39-74 mph) will be possible, specifically in Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Wakulla, and Leon counties. Hurricane force winds are more likely from Jefferson and Taylor counties and points south and east. Isolated tornadoes cannot completely be ruled out in the Florida Panhandle although the more significant tornado threat will happen along and EAST of the center of circulation. 3 to 5 feet of storm surge is expected from Mexico Beach to the Ochlockonee River, including near places like Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Indian Pass, Cape San Blas, and Carrabelle. Note that this impacts forecast for the Florida Panhandle is subject to change depending on the exact future track of Idalia. Impacts may end up being a bit more significant or less significant depending on the exact future track of the storm.
EXTREME IMPACTS EXPECTED IN BIG BEND REGION… An extremely dangerous 8 to 12 foot storm surge is forecast for parts of the Big Bend region of Florida, specifically for the coastline of Jefferson (FL), Taylor, Dixie, Levy, and Citrus counties in Florida. This extreme inundation poses a direct threat to human life! If you know someone in these counties, CALL THEM and tell them to heed the evacuation orders in place. This part of Florida is mostly swamp land with VERY low elevation subject to a potentially far-reaching and major storm surge. This area has not had a major hurricane in many, many years. Extreme wind impacts with major hurricane force winds (115+ mph) will be possible. 5-8 inches of rainfall is forecast, meaning flooding will be a concern. Tornadoes will also be possible in the Big Bend region and across the Florida Peninsula. I am EXTREMELY concerned for folks in this area! Please heed evacuation orders if you get one.
HURRICANE WARNING & STORM SURGE WARNING FOR BIG BEND AND TAMPA BAY… A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Longboat Key to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. This includes Apalachicola, Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, St. Marks, Perry, Horseshoe Beach, Cedar Key, Crystal River, Homosassa, New Port Richey, Tarpon Springs, and Clearwater. In addition to the Hurricane Warning, a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect south of Longboat Key (south of the Hurricane Warning) to Chokoloskee. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle.
FRANKLIN REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE… Hurricane Franklin is now a category 4, major hurricane. Franklin is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast today into Wednesday while also passing just to the west of Bermuda. Franklin is forecast to turn to the northeast and ultimately move out to sea later this week. No direct impacts from Franklin are expected in Alabama or northwest Florida. The storm will remain a powerful hurricane today before weakening in the days ahead.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HEAT NUMBERS THIS WEEK… Scattered to numerous pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected today and on Wednesday. These storms will not be associated with Idalia, but instead are the “normal pop-up thunderstorms” that our area experiences in the summer months. In addition to higher rain chances this week, slightly lower temperatures are here to stay for awhile. High temperatures will be in the 90s this week (as opposed to the triple digit heat of the last week) with morning lows in the upper-60s and near 70.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Tuesday RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. Be ready for scattered downpours at times!
Thunderstorms continue to push to the northwest near Navarre, Tiger Point, Pensacola Beach, and Dauphin Island.
While these storms are not severe, occasional loud thunder is happening. pic.twitter.com/JGKiqGEYNS
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 29, 2023
