A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT; MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms will become possible tonight as a cold front moves by our region. The entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered severe storms may be possible. The overall tornado potential with this particular event for our local area does not seem particularly high. There is hardly any doubt that the higher tornado probabilities will exist from the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama into Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. Could an isolated tornado or two happen locally? Yes, but the more pressing concern tonight will likely be gusty winds capable of knocking down a few trees and potentially large hail. Have a way to hear warnings tonight! Join me on Facebook Live IF tornado warnings are needed locally.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TONIGHT… 7PM this evening to 4AM Wednesday morning is the nine hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida with a core risk time from 9PM to 2AM. This will be a relatively brief window for severe storms compared to some of the previous severe weather events we have had over the last few months. Unfortunately, this will be a nighttime/nocturnal event. Have the NOAA Weather Radios turned to alert mode or have something loud that can wake you up just in case tornado warnings are needed locally.
MAIN HAZARD CONCERN – DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… Most of the high-res model guidance this morning continues to point to a line of strong to severe thunderstorms being the most likely solution of what we should expect overnight. This means damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down a few trees will be the main hazard concern. The overall potential of more discrete storms (that would be more prone to produce tornadoes and large hail) continues to seem rather low. The risk is not zero, but it is low. The big takeaway continues to be: Have a way to hear warnings tonight and join us IF we have tornado warnings.
ENHANCED TORNADO RISK ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND POINTS NORTH… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of the state of Ohio in an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk valid for today into tonight. Significant, long-track, strong tornadoes will be possible in Ohio. A few strong (EF2+) tornadoes may also be possible in parts of Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and potentially even far northern Alabama in the Tennessee Valley region. Parameters for tornado formation will be maximized in those areas. The risk farther south locally is lower, but not completely zero. For Alabama, the tornado risk is highest near Huntsville, Cullman, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Russellville, Moulton, Athens, Ardmore, Boaz, Scottsboro, and surrounding areas in the far northern part of the state.
NICE WEATHER TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY… High temperatures will be in the 70s on Wednesday after the passage of the cold front responsible for the storms pushing through our local area. Wednesday will feature clearing skies throughout the day. Sunshine is likely by the early evening hours. Overnight lows will be in the 40s region wide on Thursday and Friday mornings. There is a chance some communities farther inland in southwest Alabama may briefly be in the upper-30s. Patchy frost cannot completely be ruled out, but the chances seem to be a bit lower than previous guidance.
PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND… The upcoming weekend will feature highs in the 70s with partly cloudy skies likely on both Saturday and Sunday. For now, rain chances remain quite low as we get into the upcoming weekend. Good news!
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (top right corner) and tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. As always, join me on Facebook Live tonight if tornado warnings are needed. Have a nice Tuesday!
