Tornado Watch for Walton, Bay, Gulf, Calhoun, Jackson, Washington (FL), Holmes counties and points east in the Florida Panhandle region. This includes Miramar Beach, Seaside, Panama City, and Port St. Joe. https://t.co/fP9T07yYm5
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Rain and storms will continue over the next few hours locally and gradually come to an end from west to east. pic.twitter.com/kKb3bJqXb7
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Just after midnight on Tuesday morning, moderate to heavy rain continues across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida. No severe weather issues and the risk remains very low. pic.twitter.com/v3qobizQtK
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Flash Flood Warning for the Mobile metro till 2:45AM Tuesday. Driving certainly discouraged across Mobile. pic.twitter.com/fGV3flc8oK
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Rain and noisy storms continue across every local county. Nothing particularly concerning on radar as of 11:27PM. Good news! pic.twitter.com/sM1LXf476g
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Thunderstorms are quite noisy across the region, but the good news is these are simply general thunderstorms that remain well under severe limits. Beneficial rain! pic.twitter.com/x0vAgZA1iS
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Good news! Strong storms moving toward our area are weakening. The overall severe weather risk, even closer to the coast, will probably remain quite low overnight. Risk is not zero, but it is low. Storms will be LOUD & rowdy at times overnight. ⚡️
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
Many folks across SW Alabama and NW Florida are already hearing distant thunder. Quite a bit of lightning and thunder in the shield of rain set to push across our region.
If severe weather happens locally over next several hours, it will very likely be closer to the coast. pic.twitter.com/jaw6LaE2rY
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) May 14, 2024
STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM MISSISSIPPI OVER NEXT FEW HOURS… Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving east across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi as of 9PM. These storms are currently in an environment that is modestly unstable. This is allowing some of the storms to be severe. This main batch of thunderstorms is set to move into an environment in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida that remains highly worked over from the severe storms that moved through our region this morning. The map above highlights the current composite radar and the high-res surface-based CAPE/instability. You can see there is basically zero available SBCAPE across inland areas. This means there is no fuel for thunderstorms to tap into to produce tornadoes. Excellent news! We will have to see if a narrow band of higher instability values pushes inland, but that seems rather unlikely as of now.
WHAT TO EXPECT – NEXT FEW HOURS… Thunderstorms near Biloxi and across Harrison, George, and Jackson counties in southeast Mississippi will continue to push into Mobile County. These storms remain well under severe limits for now. The larger, main batch of storms we are tracking this evening will continue to shift toward our area over the next few hours, first entering Mobile County from the west around 10PM or 10:30PM. There is a low-end tornado risk near the beaches and bays tonight. This is not a night for you to stay up and be concerned as long as you have a way to hear warnings. This is a lower-end severe weather risk compared to the risks we have had over the last few days. Could a tornado warning happen locally? Yes, but the odds are rather low. Most of us will simply have rain and general thunderstorms. Gusty winds may also be possible.
I am closely monitoring radar trends and will have updates posted over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app.
