BERYL NOW A CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE; NEW TROPICAL STORM IN GULF POSSIBLE… Hurricane Beryl is now the earliest calendar year category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. Beryl has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, per the 2PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is currently centered about 310 miles ESE of Barbados in the Atlantic Ocean. Beryl poses a serious threat to the southern Antilles over the next 36 hours. In addition to Hurricane Beryl, two other systems are noted in the Atlantic Basin – one in the far southern Gulf of Mexico and the other to the east of Beryl far out in the Atlantic Ocean.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – HURRICANE BERYL… Confidence is increasing that Hurricane Beryl will pass to our south and west. Model guidance has continued to show an upper ridge of high pressure remaining strong enough to “deflect” Beryl to our south and west in 5-7 days. While it remains too early to give an “all clear” for south Alabama and northwest Florida, please understand I am very encouraged that MOST of the model guidance continues to show Beryl remaining away from our area. I will have many more updates posted about Beryl in the days ahead.
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS – HURRICANE BERYL… The longer range forecast for Beryl is a bit more unclear compared to the immediate forecast of the storm moving through the Caribbean Sea. MOST of the model guidance shows Beryl moving into or near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico & Belize. Beyond that, there is a considerable spread as to where Beryl ends up. Most of the guidance shows continued movement into the Bay of Campeche region and then into Mexico or Texas. Some of the outlier model guidance has showed movement farther east into parts of Louisiana. It is simply too early to say where Hurricane Beryl will end up, underscoring the need to stay informed over the next few days. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.
BERYL IS A MAJOR THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN ANTILLES… 130 mph wind gusts, heavy rain, flash flooding, mudslides, and extremely high waves are expected in some of the islands of the Lesser Antilles over the next 36 hours as the core of Hurricane Beryl moves through that region. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago. A Tropical Storm Warning is up for Martinique. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominica and Trinidad. This is current as of the 2PM Sunday, June 30, 2024 advisory for Hurricane Beryl.
SEPARATE TROPICAL STORM MAY FORM IN SOUTHERN GULF LATER TODAY… In addition to Hurricane Beryl, another tropical storm may be in the process of forming in the far southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche region. This is the tropical wave that has been branded as INVEST 94L over the last few days. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is an 80% chance of this system briefly becoming a named tropical storm before moving into Mexico tonight and tomorrow. From NHC as of 2PM: “Satellite derived winds and preliminary aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche has become better organized during the past few hours and a tropical depression could be forming. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight and move inland on Monday morning. Consequently, a Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today for a portion of the eastern coast of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico today and into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the system.” Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will not be a direct threat to Alabama or northwest Florida.
INVEST 96L FORMS IN ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF BERYL… Another, separate tropical wave behind, or to the east of, Hurricane Beryl is moving west across the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. This tropical wave now has a 70% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next few days while generally moving in the same direction as Hurricane Beryl. Interests in the Lesser Antilles, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. This system may be quite a problem for some of the islands of the Lesser Antilles during the recovery phase after Hurricane Beryl moves through that area.
LOCALLY, POP-UP STORMS TODAY… Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon, particularly near the northwest Florida beaches and near coastal Alabama. Heavy downpours of rain, lightning, loud thunder, and gusty winds will be possible in the thunderstorms that pop up across the region over the next several hours. Today will be a day when you may have multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms at times. The good news is these are not organized storms, thus widespread, significant severe weather is not expected. The overall tornado risk locally remains near zero.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have a detailed update posted by 7:15AM in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a nice Sunday evening!
