SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES TODAY… Scattered thunderstorms will be the norm at times across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but some of the storms will be loud at times.
High temperatures will be in the low-90s.
Have a nice start to your week!
Nice view of the larger system that may be responsible for the development of a tropical storm in the western Gulf later this week… https://t.co/GuIboenZ6g
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 17, 2024
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN ATLANTIC MAY BRING RAIN TO LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND… Two tropical hotspots continue to warrant attention on this Sunday evening. The developing system in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean warrants our focus over the next few days as the system may bring rain and potentially other impacts to parts of Alabama and Florida later this week and into the weekend. Our friends to the southwest across parts of western Louisiana and Texas will be monitoring the developing area of low pressure in the far southern Gulf that may cause excessive rainfall later this week. Below are the Sunday evening notes concerning these two systems.
30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC… The area of concern that is developing in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda is at the tail end of a decaying cold front that is slowly moving east. This area of disturbed weather will begin to rapidly move westward over the next few days. Nearly all of the major global weather models show this system being a rather small, compact, probably “weak” system. Some models ramp the system up to tropical storm status briefly, while others keep the system as an open trough of low pressure that would not take a name. Regardless of the intensity of the system, I expect rain in parts of north Florida and Georgia later this week. Some scenarios point to the system crossing into the Gulf of Mexico or remaining over land and moving into our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida FROM the east. If this scenario pans out, that would bump up our local rain chances later this week. Other impacts are to be determined, but because of the overall weak nature of the system, I doubt significant impacts will happen IF model trends continue. This is something I will be closely monitoring over the next few days.
70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is a large area of disturbed weather that extends across parts of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and much of Central America this evening. This feature is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG). The CAG is expected to rotate multiple areas of low pressure around it over the next few days. One of these lows may briefly become a tropical storm before moving into mainland Mexico later this week. We note that regardless of if a formal tropical storm happens, folks in Texas and western Louisiana should expect potentially significant heavy rain and flash flooding. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has parts of east Texas picking up 7-10 inches of total rainfall over the next 5 days.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED LOCALLY MONDAY… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Just like today, most of the storms should happen in the afternoon and evening hours, although a few areas of rain and storms may develop in the late morning hours as well. Widespread severe storms are not expected but some of the storms may be loud at times. High temperatures tomorrow will again be in the upper-80s and low-90s.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me then for an update on the tropics and a look at our local 7 Day Forecast. Have a nice Sunday evening!
The non-tropical area of low pressure in the Atlantic that may become a brief tropical storm in the days ahead may ultimately increase rain chances across south Alabama & NW Florida, under some scenarios, later this week and into the upcoming weekend. https://t.co/WGQKOHbU4F pic.twitter.com/AAuPOTfw4y
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 17, 2024
Spotty showers continue to bring rain to Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Lyeffion, and Deer Park this evening.
Rain and storms will continue to fade out over the next few hours. pic.twitter.com/bw5a6u2oaW
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 16, 2024
Stormy skies near Vineland, AL in Marengo County. Thanks to Hanna Nelson for the view! pic.twitter.com/CAH9x0GKcw
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 16, 2024
Regardless of what specifically happens with the tropical feature developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, a major rain event is ahead for parts of Texas. https://t.co/YtBRP6fTJh
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 16, 2024
Viewer report of 2.5+ inches of rainfall in East Brewton, AL just today. Good, beneficial rain! ⛈️
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 16, 2024
