SPOTTY STORMS TODAY; LOW-END RAIN CHANCES IN DAYS AHEAD… Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some of the thunderstorms will be loud at times and produce cloud-to-ground lightning. Storm coverage probably won’t be AS numerous compared to yesterday but there will be some communities that have downpours before the end of the day. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and near the 90 degree mark.

LOW-END RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK… Scattered thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening hours, will be possible over the next several days. Rain chances remain low (20%) on both Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of slightly higher (40%) rain chances on Thursday. Severe storms seem unlikely as the overall weather pattern this week will be quite summer like in nature with pop-up thunderstorms being the norm. These storms are often loud, heavy rain producers, and quite localized in nature, but are usually not severe. High temperatures will be around 90 over the next few days with morning lows in the upper-60s.

HURRICANE SEASON NOW UNDERWAY; TROPICS QUIET… The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially underway. The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean are quiet with no tropical storms expected to form over the next 5 days. This hurricane season is expected to be quite active. If you missed my post from last night regarding the viral misinformation, check it out here.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

See all the details in your Monday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!

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POP-UP STORMS TODAY… Scattered thunderstorms are likely again on this Monday. Not every location across the region will have rain before the end of the day. Not expecting widespread severe weather today. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s.

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HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS AND SO DO THE WILD, CRAZY MISINFORMATION PAGES… Every year in early June, it seems like clockwork that single images of singular model runs are posted everywhere on social media depicting a hurricane making landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast. I have had two people message me in the last hour showing me single image model runs from viral Facebook pages. Here’s the truth: We are very, very likely to have an active or hyperactive hurricane season this year due to near record sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the beginnings of a La Niña pattern in the equatorial Pacific. There is NO ONE that can tell you what areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Atlantic Ocean will have landfalls from tropical systems this year. A few key points are below.

1) Any “hurricane page” that is not a trained meteorologist or credible source should be discarded. Plain and simple. “Gulf Coast Weather Updates,” “Gulf Hurricane Updates,” “Tropical Weather Source” could be operated by the Russians themselves for all we know. The rule of thumb as to how to identify a reputable weather source: Look for someone putting their name on the line. Local meteorologists, the local National Weather Service offices, local EMA, etc. Let me emphasize that I don’t have to be your weather source. That’s not what I am saying here. What I am saying is *please use credible sources.* Local sources are generally better than the national sources that bask in the craziness of hype and hyperbole. In fact, I think it behooves everyone to have MULTIPLE ways to get good, reliable information. If you like our updates, great. Thank you for watching. If you don’t, that’s fine too. Just make sure you’re listening to a reputable source and not “Hurricane Central Updates” or some crazy, wild page on Facebook OR SOMEONE THAT TYPES IN CONSISTENT ALL CAPS LIKE THIS. IF SOMEONE TYPES THEIR ENTIRE POSTS IN ALL CAPS, IT GENERALLY IS DESIGNED TO SCARE YOU. Seriously.

2) Single model runs are not the same as a handcrafted forecast. Think of a forecast as a finalized recipe with models being the many different ingredients in that recipe. Any trained meteorologist you follow uses multiple, well-known weather models to put together a forecast each day. One model is simply “one ingredient.” The Global Forecast System (GFS) is an American-based model that is run by the U.S. government. The ECMWF model is based in Europe. These models are great, but looking at one model image and passing it off as a forecast is like taking a photo of a raw egg and calling it a birthday cake. An egg is merely one ingredient of a birthday cake.

3) ANY “forecast” beyond 7 days out should be treated with a proverbial grain of salt. The images circulating wildly on social media are 14+ days out. Read that again: Fourteen days out. No one, and I truly mean NO ONE, can tell you with accuracy or precision what a weather forecast for a given point will be in 14 days. Ideas based on climatology of an area provide some clues, but even then, wild changes are possible. If a social media page is posting supposed “forecasts” beyond 7 days out, discard it.

Long-time viewers and readers know that I do my best to “shoot it to you straight.” Hyperbole, hype, and fear mongering are totally unnecessary when communicating weather info. Moreover, posts that have NO context and post these wild, crazy model images are also pointless. Unfortunately, so many people these days love the “dopamine hit” that comes from getting numerous likes and shares on social media. The best thing to do when you come across a wildly inaccurate, hyped up weather post: Scroll on by and don’t interact with the post. Don’t feed the trolls, in other words.

It is unfortunate that we live in a world where the writers of these viral posts have no regard for people that have weather anxiety. We don’t post deranged info like that around here.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday morning. Have a great evening!

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Flash Flood Warning including Foley AL, Summerdale AL and Silverhill AL until 6:30 PM CDT pic.twitter.com/rRctDPJg5x

— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) June 2, 2024

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WEATHER ALERT… Flash Flood Warning issued for Baldwin-AL County until 6:30 PM.

Alert issued by the National Weather Service MOB at 4:36 PM CDT Sunday, June 2, 2024 and is valid until 6:30 PM CDT Sunday, June 2, 2024.

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POP-UP STORMS LOCALLY… Heavy pockets of rain are happening in southern Baldwin County near Summerdale, Silverhill, and Foley.

Storms are also producing heavy rain near Thomasville, Opp, and Onycha.

A few more storms may develop over the next several hours across our region.

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Loud storms producing heavy rain are happening near Wing, Carolina, Beatrice, Chance, Franklin, Nettleboro, Gravine Island, and Foley.

Pop-up thunderstorms will continue to be possible into the evening hours. Widespread severe storms are not expected. ⛈️ pic.twitter.com/Ho1o6zfljt

— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 2, 2024

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Thunderstorms that have become briefly strong near Munson, Sellersville, Alaflora, McLellan, Beaver Creek, and Hurricane Lake may produce small hail and gusty winds over the next few minutes. These storms are building into northern Okaloosa County. pic.twitter.com/ECoq0Kh1c8

— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) June 2, 2024

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