SCATTERED STORMS & HEAT ADVISORY LOCALLY; TRACKING CAT. 5 HURRICANE BERYL… Afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday. A Heat Advisory is in effect, meaning heat index values of 108-111° will be possible. We continue to track record-setting Hurricane Beryl, the earliest forming category 5 hurricane in Atlantic hurricane history. Beryl will be a problem for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize, and Mexico in the days ahead.
ANOTHER HOT, SULTRY DAY; P.M. STORMS AROUND… We have a Heat Advisory again today for several local counties from 10AM to 7PM in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Heat index values will again be in the 108-111° range later today. Isolated pop-up thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, but unlike yesterday, activity won’t be confined predominantly to the coast. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some storms will produce loud thunder, cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rain.
CONSISTENT PATTERN TO CONTINUE; HOT 4TH OF JULY… High temperatures will be in the 90-95° range over the next 7 days with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, mostly (although not exclusively) in the P.M. hours. This holds true for Independence Day on Thursday as well. Most of the fireworks displays across the region should be dry but there will inevitably be some communities that have pop-up storms around in the evening hours on Thursday.
TROPICS: HURRICANE BERYL NOW A RARE, CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN CARIBBEAN SEA… Hurricane Beryl has become the earliest forming category 5 hurricane in any documented hurricane season. Beryl has maximum sustained winds of 160+ mph with higher gusts. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the entirety of Jamaica. The core of Beryl impacts for Jamaica will happen on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed soon for the Cayman Islands and likely parts of Belize and Mexico. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Beryl brings the system into the Yucatan Peninsula from the Caribbean Sea late Thursday or early Friday. Beryl is then projected to remerge over water in the far southern Gulf on Friday ahead of a slight northerly turn this weekend. Impacts will be possible in parts of Mexico and Texas this weekend into early next week.
TROPICS: BERYL LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST… There is increasing confidence that Beryl will remain to the west of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Mexico looks to take the brunt of the impacts from this storm, as far as continental land impact. There is still some chance for potential impacts in Texas and Louisiana. The overall risk of impacts in Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida is now LOW, but not zero just yet. This is something I will continuously be monitoring over the next several days until we can give a definitive “all clear.” I cannot do that just yet as there are some particular, “outlier” scenarios that could feature impacts, but to be clear: Impacts from Beryl continue to seem less and less likely with each passing hour. Hopefully that trend will continue!
TROPICS: FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS… Tropical Storm Chris is no more as the system made landfall in Mexico yesterday morning. The system quickly dissipated and the National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory on Chris.
TROPICS: 96L IN ATLANTIC LESS LIKELY TO DEVELOP… Model support for the tropical wave in the Atlantic to the east of, or “behind” Hurricane Beryl, continues to collapse. This is good news! NHC has development odds at a 40% chance, down from a 70% chance yesterday. Regardless of if formal development happens, there is a chance this tropical wave will bring rain and gusty winds to some of the islands that were so hard hit by Hurricane Beryl yesterday in the Lesser Antilles.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Tuesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a nice day!
Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!
