PTC4 LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA; FURTHER FORECAST CHANGES POSSIBLE… Confidence is increasing this evening that the tropical disturbance over Cuba, now branded as Potential Tropical Cyclone #4, will move toward the Florida Peninsula over the next few days. Impacts from what will likely be a tropical storm, are expected in parts of southwest Florida and will be possible northward to Tampa and even the Big Bend region on Sunday into Monday. Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are now less likely, but I emphasize that further forecast refinements and adjustments remain LIKELY. Until a low-level center of circulation forms, guidance will vary quite a bit. I am encouraged, however, by the overall tightening of guidance over the last 12-24 hours. Let’s hope that trend holds, as IF it does, our local area would be spared from any big impacts from this developing storm.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… This is NOT “all clear,” but this IS “I’m feeling a lot better today than I was yesterday about this system.” Forecast guidance yesterday was a mess, to say the least. Today, we’re seeing models consistently latching onto the idea of Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 moving farther north more quickly in between two ridges of high pressure. In addition, a trough positioned across the northern tier of the United States looks to be a bit stronger than initially thought, thus helping to (at least initially) “pull” the system into the Florida Peninsula and keep it away from south Alabama and northwest Florida. IF (big if) this scenario happens, the system would not cause major impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida. Rip currents will be a concern at ALL Gulf Coast beaches into next week. While we certainly are not “out of the woods” just yet, the trends today have been much better than the last few days.
DO NOT CANCEL BEACH PLANS AT THIS POINT… I have been asked by many, many people over the last few days about whether or not they should cancel their south Alabama and northwest Florida beach vacation plans. My answer remains a resounding NO. Forecast trends are now suggesting the core of this developing tropical system will remain well to the east of south Alabama and northwest Florida, likely limiting or potentially nixing any big local impacts. Confidence in that idea is not certain, but it is a growing consensus at this point. We will have pop-up storms around each day (not associated with the tropical system) but that is totally normal. Storms flare up and last about an hour and then go away. There will be a good supply of sunshine in each of the next 7 days. Obviously if you have travel plans to the Florida Peninsula, you will need to assess that area differently as considerable impacts will be possible this weekend from this developing system.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR FLORIDA PENINSULA… A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Naples, Bonita Springs, Pelican Bay, Marco Island, Ft. Myers, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, and Everglades. The Tropical Storm Warning runs from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all of the Florida Keys and farther north along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River. This includes places like Tampa, Clearwater, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, and Homosassa Springs. Heavy rain and flash flooding will probably be the main concerns in these areas and beyond in the Florida Peninsula in the days ahead. Wind issues will be possible, particularly near the coast. Tornadoes will be a concern across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, Sunday, and potentially into Monday.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted throughout the evening and on Saturday in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Friday evening!
