Scattered thunderstorms are quickly developing at midday near Pensacola, Milton, Crestview, Florala, and Brewton.
Be ready for scattered downpours over the next several hours. pic.twitter.com/m5zEpDx8WG
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 2, 2024
SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEKEND; WATCHING TROPICS INTO NEXT WEEK… Higher chances of P.M. pop-up storms are ahead for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. High temperatures will continue to be in the 90s over the next several days. We’ll be watching INVEST 97L (the tropical disturbance near Cuba) in the days ahead as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
QUITE HOT TODAY; HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY; INVEST 97L TO MOVE INTO S.E. GULF… Heat index values will again be near 110° locally this afternoon into this evening with isolated, pop-up storms being possible. Most communities will remain dry today but a few spots may have downpours before the end of the day. Rain chances are slated to rise on Saturday, not because of the tropical system we’re tracking, but because of more moisture in place across the region that will allow scattered to numerous P.M. pulse-type thunderstorms to develop. This morning, our big focus remains on INVEST 97L.
80% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN EASTERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center now suggests there is an 80% chance of a tropical storm forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week. Regardless of if formal development happens, this will be a significant rain event for parts of Florida that are along and east of the center of the system. 4-7 inches of total rainfall will be possible in parts of central Florida.
A GLIMMER OF CONSISTENCY FOR INVEST 97L… Confidence is ever so slightly higher this morning in the idea that INVEST 97L, the disturbance currently over far eastern Cuba, may be more of a problem for the Florida Peninsula and less of a problem for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Let me be extremely clear in stating that idea is NOT set in stone. I am encouraged, however, in model guidance becoming more consistent in a future track idea that is near the western coast of the Florida Peninsula before moving inland in a wide swath from Apalachicola south to Tampa.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… While forecast confidence remains low, the trends this morning are encouraging in that IF the tropical disturbance remains to our east and ultimately crosses the Florida Peninsula, impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida would be largely limited. Rip currents WILL be a concern at all local beaches over the next week. Keep in mind that further forecast adjustments may be necessary and this **by no means** indicates we are “out of the woods” just yet. We’ve taken the first step toward that but often in these situations, it’s one step forward, two steps back. I will be watching late morning and afternoon trends and have another detailed update posted later this evening.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND LOCALLY… Just like what happened yesterday, there may be a few, widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening but MOST communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida will remain dry on this Friday. Slightly higher rain chances are in store for Saturday and Sunday. These pop-up storms will not be associated with the tropical system we’re tracking, but instead are typical, pop-up storms of summer that are often initiated by the seabreeze. High temperatures this weekend will be in the low- to mid-90s with morning lows in the mid-70s.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Friday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Join me throughout the weekend for further updates on the tropical situation. Have a nice Friday!
HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN TODAY; ONLY A FEW P.M. STORMS… Air temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-90s this afternoon with heat index values again close to 110° in many spots across the region. Isolated storms will be possible during the P.M. hours but rain chances remain a bit deflated today. Higher rain chances return tomorrow!
