Big rain ahead for the Florida Peninsula. #97L https://t.co/9TT23jAPo5

— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 2, 2024

Great graphic.
There is uncertainty. It's all uncertain right now.
And there's going to be a waiting period until this thing starts to really develop late weekend
But anyone along the SE coast should pay attention and be ready for a lot of rain https://t.co/TLhGKb7qrQ

— Aubrey Urbanowicz (@WeatherAubs) August 2, 2024

INVEST 97L TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND; AMPLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THAT… The tropical disturbance now near Haiti and the Dominican Republic is slated to move into the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Uncertainty as to where this system will ultimately end up remains quite high, compounded by the fact that we may see the disturbance (or tropical storm at that point) stall out over the eastern Gulf. Slow-moving tropical systems are notoriously difficult to forecast. Local folks vividly remember Hurricane Sally in 2020 as the storm that stalled out and decided to drop literally 30 inches of rainfall at Orange Beach. While the placement IS going to be different this time, there is a chance this storm stalls out and causes a significant amount of rainfall and flash flooding for parts of Florida in the days ahead. There continues to be a range of outcomes that may happen, all of which have substantial implications as to exactly what will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Let’s talk about what we know AND what we don’t know on this Thursday evening.

97L TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY… The tropical disturbance we have been tracking since it was out in the Atlantic Ocean just a few days ago has been “labeled” as INVEST 97L. The INVEST label simply means “investigation area” or something to watch over the next few days. 97L is located over Haiti and the Dominican Republic right now, producing heavy rain and general thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the Turks & Caicos, The Bahamas, and eastern Cuba. The tropical disturbance will probably remain fairly disorganized until Saturday as environmental conditions are not exactly supportive of a tropical storm forming immediately. That begins to change on Saturday. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 70% chance of this system becoming a tropical storm this weekend or early next week.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY – 97L MOVES NORTHEAST IN S.E. GULF OF MEXICO… Confidence is growing that this tropical disturbance will be a prolific rainmaker not only for Cuba but also for a substantial part of the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle where we are, but the Peninsula – Tampa, Ft. Myers, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale) this weekend. The system may become a tropical storm before reaching the Florida Keys some time this weekend. This means that tropical storm conditions may be possible in the Keys on Saturday and/or on Sunday.

POTENTIAL STALL IN EASTERN GULF – OR SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO FL PENSINSULA… The forecast gets a lot more murky and uncertain on Sunday into Monday. This is when the tropical system will be in the eastern Gulf, potentially producing heavy rain and flash flooding across parts of the Florida Peninsula. By this point (on Sunday into Monday), the system may be a weak, disorganized tropical wave, a tropical depression, or even a tropical storm. Chances of the system being a hurricane on Sunday and Monday are LOW, but not entirely zero. Unfortunately, this is also when the system will be slowing down a bit. Why? Because we are expecting the overall steering pattern to either come close to collapsing or collapsing entirely. Interestingly, the last hour or so of model guidance has indicated the system may not ever go completely stationary, but rather move into the Florida Peninsula or the Big Bend region early next week. IF that scenario verified, that would be excellent news for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, yet not good news for our friends in north Florida and south Georgia where heavy rain and flash flooding would quickly become a concern. I am going to be watching trends carefully to see if we can observe a trend in the data. Much more model guidance throughout the day today has, quite frankly, been “all over the board” with solutions ranging from a storm moving up the East Coast of the U.S. to a storm moving into the Florida Panhandle and some really odd potential loops and slowdowns along the way.

KEY MESSAGE: DON’T LATCH ONTO THE FORECAST YET & CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES… I put this in a comment in an earlier post today and it still holds true: The tropical disturbance has already had several shifts in the forecast as model guidance DOES NOT handle situations like this well where steering currents are forecast to be weak. Just to set expectations properly, the likelihood is growing that we may be dealing with this system being somewhere near the Gulf Coast of Florida and/or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for several days. This is NOT going to be a classic one day “one and done” tropical storm. The system may move inland over Florida and loop back out into the Gulf or move out into the Atlantic. We simply do not have the ability to know details like that this far out.

LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… It remains too early to speculate whether local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are realistically possible. There is a vast range of outcomes here and we simply don’t know yet. I would kindly ask for your kindness and patience in the days ahead as we monitor this system. There is no one that would rather be able to give you definitive answers, but I simply can’t do that at this point and I must tell you my confidence is growing, however, that this will be a tropical forecasting challenge like we haven’t seen in quite some time. That does NOT necessarily point to the system being WORSE. It simply means the forecast confidence is quite low. Best case scenario is that overnight and Friday data becomes more consistent showing the system remaining to our east.

DO NOT CANCEL PLANS AT THIS POINT – TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY… I have been asked by many, many people today about whether or not they should cancel their beach vacation plans. My answer remains a resounding NO. Why? Two reasons. 1) The uncertainty in the forecast means there remains a real chance this entire system never even gets close to our local area. 2) There remains a substantial chance that IF the system does develop and moves close or just east of our area that impacts would be LIMITED. So no, I would not cancel, but your tolerance as to what you’re willing to deal with may be different than mine. We have pop-up storms just about every day in summer time around here and that is not going to change anytime soon.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day on Friday in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

My next detailed video update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me for the latest rundown on the tropics. Have a nice Thursday evening!

Several questions this evening about the TIMING of INVEST 97L this evening. Thursday evening long form post here: https://t.co/qY7WvMLgUX pic.twitter.com/uhDgafamAb

— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 2, 2024