11AM track of Tropical Storm #Helene has the storm moving into the Big Bend region of Florida Thursday evening.
A Hurricane Watch is now up for much of the Florida Gulf Coast from Englewood to Indian Pass. pic.twitter.com/jg6EhVpXpr
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) September 24, 2024
RAIN AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY… Beneficial rain is expected at times tomorrow into Thursday. The good news is the core of the developing tropical system will likely remain well to our east across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida.
PTC9 EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE; FLORIDA LANDFALL LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING… The expectation continues to be that a hurricane will make landfall in or near the Big Bend region of Florida later this week, most likely on Thursday evening, bringing with it a major threat of storm surge, heavy rain, flash flooding, and tornadoes to parts of the Florida Peninsula, the Big Bend region, the eastern fringe of the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. South Alabama and northwest Florida will be on the “better”/western side of this storm IF the current forecast verifies. Locally on this Tuesday, a few widely scattered showers may be possible but most of us will remain dry and hot today. High temperatures will be in the low-90s.
7AM TUESDAY: LOCAL IMPACTS – S.W. ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… No major changes to report compared to last evening. Significant local impacts are not currently expected in southwest Alabama or northwest Florida due to this developing tropical system. Impacts such as heavy rain at times, gusty (20-30 mph gusts near the coast) wind, and a very high risk of rip currents at local beaches are expected, but under the current forecast guidance, there is simply no evidence of any significant impacts happening in southwest Alabama or northwest Florida in areas WEST of Opp, Crestview, and Destin. Forecast guidance continues to be quite consistent. If I observe any significant changes to this, I’ll let you know in the RedZone Weather app. Not an “all clear” but definitely optimistic about most, if not all, of the major impacts happening well to our east.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ZONE: TALLAHASSEE & BIG BEND REGION… The landfall point of this developing tropical system is expected to happen between Panama City Beach and Sarasota along the Gulf Coast of Florida. More specifically, landfall is MOST likely to happen (again, under the CURRENT forecast guidance) from Port St. Joe to Cedar Key. This is a very storm surge prone part of the Florida coast, and a zone that has had far too many hurricanes over the last few years! Please heed any evacuation orders you get if you are in Port St. Joe, Indian Pass, Cape San Blas, Apalachicola, Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, St. Marks, Tallahassee, Perry, Cross City, Horseshoe Beach, Cedar Key, or surrounding locales in the Big Bend region of Florida. This could be an extremely dangerous situation setting up for that specific part of Florida!
HURRICANE WATCH LIKELY SOON FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA COAST… A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed today or Wednesday for parts of the Florida Big Bend region and perhaps parts of the Florida Panhandle region and the western coast of Florida near Tampa, potentially. In addition, don’t be surprised if we see a Tropical Storm Watch being issued for places potentially as far west as Pensacola. This will be a large storm with a large radius of tropical storm force winds extending well away from the center of the storm, even on the western side. While I doubt major issues will happen locally, I would not be surprised to see a Tropical Storm Watch issued as a precautionary measure to account for the off chance of tropical storm force wind gusts near the coast in our region.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LOCALLY… South Alabama and northwest Florida will have extremely beneficial rainfall off of this developing hurricane. Places like Opp, Florala, Crestview, Destin, Santa Rosa Beach, Fort Walton Beach, Navarre, DeFuniak Springs, and points east will pick up 2-4″ of total rainfall most likely. Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 1-3″ range for places like Mobile, Fairhope, Foley, Pensacola, Orange Beach, Jay, Atmore, Brewton, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, and Andalusia. Much of this rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday across the local area. High temperatures on Thursday will only be in the upper-70s and near 80° due to all of the clouds and rain around.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Tuesday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great day!
MAINLY DRY TODAY; WATCHING TROPICS… Other than a few tiny, highly isolated showers later today, much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will be dry on this Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the low-90s.
Rain chances spike across the region tomorrow into Thursday.
