GULF STORM EXPECTED TO FORM THIS WEEK; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE UNDER SOME SCENARIOS… Chances are now high we will have a tropical storm or hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico as we get into the middle part of the upcoming week. There continues to be a major spread of outcomes with a potential landfall point as far west as Louisiana or as far southeast as the southwestern corner of Florida. That means folks in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, northwest Florida, the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend, and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. The National Hurricane Center now indicates there is a 70% chance of a named tropical storm developing around midweek. While there is a LOT we simply cannot answer right now (who gets what impacts, where the system will ultimately go, etc.), we are potentially beginning to get a glimpse of an outcome that may be more likely to happen.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… It remains too early to know whether local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be possible due to this developing tropical system. IF the system develops quicker and moves further to our east this week, direct local impacts are less likely to happen. IF, however, the system is slower to develop, more of a northerly track may be possible in the middle to latter part of the upcoming week. IF impacts happen in our local area, Thursday through Sunday looks to be the general timeframe. Please do not expect much more clarity in the forecast until tomorrow night or Monday (and even then, it may come at somewhat of a slow pace) as the storm is still very much in the formative stages. We will get a much better handle of the ultimate track of the system once a low-level center of circulation forms in a few days.
TWO MAIN PLAYERS DRIVING THIS DEVELOPING STORM… Two main meteorological features, and the overall strength of these two features, will ultimately determine where this developing tropical system will move. An upper-level trough to the west and a ridge of high pressure to the east will generally guide this developing system to the north into the central Gulf through midweek. If the trough ends up being more progressive and the ridge is a bit weaker, this would steer the storm further to our east, meaning problems for the Florida Peninsula. If, however, the trough is not as progressive and the ridge is stronger, that may steer the system more to the north and potentially closer to our local area in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Again, big question marks at this point that cannot be resolved just yet.
NO NEED FOR PANIC; THIS IS HURRICANE SEASON… One final note on this Saturday evening. I cannot really explain why certain tropical systems have far more media and social media attention compared to others. This one, quite frankly, has already been a misinformation nightmare in a similar vein to what happened a few years ago with Hurricane Ian. I want to emphasize that I do not have to be your trusted source of information, but PLEASE do not heed the bad information spreading like wildfire on Facebook or TikTok. Other reputable sources of information are the National Weather Service, local EMA offices, the National Hurricane Center, etc. There is a TON of misinformation (and outright fake news!) out there with this particular storm, again, far worse than others so far this year. I’ll leave the “why” up to the social scientists that study this kind of thing. This sort of storm is totally normal for this time of year. September is the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
APP… Many updates will be posted over the next several days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have another detailed update posted tomorrow (Sunday). Have a nice Saturday evening!
