ISOLATED STORMS TODAY; MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY… The severe weather risk for Saturday into Saturday night continues to escalate. We now have a Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk for parts of the Deep South. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the next several hours on this Thursday with a low-end probability of severe storms today. Any thunderstorms that can briefly become strong or marginally severe TODAY will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail. The overall tornado risk remains quite low today.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT… Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of west, central, and north Alabama along with Mississippi from late Friday night into early Saturday morning. This early morning round of storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Noon Saturday to 3AM Sunday is the core window for most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida when the tornado risk will peak. Storms will continue moving east on Saturday night into early Sunday morning and should be in the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia by 6AM Sunday at the latest.
SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY; LOW-END RISK LOCALLY… Strong to severe storms will be possible to our north across parts of northwest Alabama and north Mississippi on Friday. SPC has a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk in place for northwest Alabama, north Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, eastern Missouri, southeast Iowa, much of Illinois, and western Indiana. Strong tornadoes will be possible in these zones along with a pronounced threat of damaging wind gusts and hail. We note SPC has included much of our local area in the low-end risk zone valid for Friday night into early Saturday morning.
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK – SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT… The likelihood of several tornadoes happening across parts of the Deep South on Saturday into Saturday night has continued to increase, particularly in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. Some of the tornadoes may be long track, significant (EF2+) tornadoes. In addition, damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down trees and power lines may become possible. Large hail will also be a concern in any of the storms that can become discrete and isolated.
OUTLOOK UPGRADE: LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK SATURDAY INTO SAT. NIGHT… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Alabama and Mississippi into the Level 4 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Saturday into Saturday night. Eastern Louisiana and a part of northwest Florida are also involved in this higher risk. Parameters supporting strong tornadoes have increased to the point where SPC feels it is warranted to issue this higher risk level. PLEASE note that even if you are not involved in the Level 4 risk zone, tornadoes can and probably will happen in the other risk zones. We ALL have a significant round of severe weather ahead on Saturday into Saturday night. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings this weekend! You need to have multiple devices that can get your attention and cause you to take action to get sheltered if a warning is needed for your specific location.
A NOTE ABOUT THE ZONE SPECIFICS… One bit of concern I always have during these potentially higher-end severe weather setups is that folks will “tune out” the lower risk zones, when in actuality, WE ALL have a risk of severe storms. Quite frankly, once the event starts, it does not matter one bit what color/risk number/risk level your specific community is involved with: Dangerous thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida. This is a helpful reminder not to get TOO caught up in the specific risk level or color zone in the convective outlooks. While the risk of tornadoes IS higher in the higher risk zones, tornadoes can and do happen OUTSIDE of the highest risk zones with severe weather setups like what is expected on Saturday.
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING; CLEARING SUNDAY P.M. INTO MONDAY… Isolated showers will be possible Sunday morning long after the severe weather risk comes to a close. Rain should be completely out of our local area to the east by 2PM Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 70s. We’ll be in the low 70s on Monday afternoon with full sunshine expected all day Monday and Tuesday.
BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard nothing about this severe weather threat setting up for Saturday. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live, YouTube Live, and in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have updates posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. I will have another detailed post later this evening. Have a good Thursday!
