DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SETUP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT; STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED… The severe weather threat setting up for Saturday into Saturday night continues to be extremely concerning with the potential for multiple, long track, intense (EF3+) tornadoes across parts of the Deep South. This is the latest convective outlook discussion, unedited, from the Storm Prediction Center as of 5:30PM Thursday: “A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely.” This is heightened language from SPC, underscoring the very serious threat of a few long track, intense tornadoes on Saturday.
UPDATED LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely on Saturday, specifically across parts of east Mississippi and west Alabama. The first round of storms may kick off across Southeast Mississippi around 10PM Friday (tomorrow!) evening. This first cluster of storms may be supercellular in nature, potentially producing a few tornadoes while moving through the western part of our local area. This is why I have updated the timing, specifically for west Alabama, to better reflect the potential of a first round of storms happening overnight tomorrow night into Saturday. The “main event,” however, is expected to happen for many communities from Noon Saturday to 4AM Sunday. This very well could be a long-lasting severe weather day that continues into Saturday night. We vehemently encourage everyone to have multiple ways to hear warnings starting tomorrow night and extending throughout the day on Saturday into Sunday. Intense (EF3+) tornadoes will be possible.
A NOTE ABOUT THE ZONE SPECIFICS… One bit of concern I always have during these potentially higher-end severe weather setups is that folks will “tune out” the lower risk zones, when in actuality, WE ALL have a risk of severe storms. Quite frankly, once the event starts, it does not matter one bit what color/risk number/risk level your specific community is involved with: Dangerous thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida. This is a helpful reminder not to get TOO caught up in the specific risk level or color zone in the convective outlooks. While the risk of tornadoes IS higher in the higher risk zones, tornadoes can and do happen OUTSIDE of the highest risk zones with severe weather setups like what is expected on Saturday.
WILL SPC INTRODUCE A LEVEL 5 (OUT OF 5) RISK?… Quite frankly, it matters very little at this point. This is set to be a major, potentially dangerous severe weather event with multiple, intense tornadoes being possible. A Level 4 (out of 5) risk happens, on average, once or twice per year locally. The last time we had any part of our area in a Level 5 high risk was in 2021, briefly. Before that, the previous time we had a Level 5 (out of 5) risk locally was in March 2007 during the outbreak that caused the EF4 tornadoes in Enterprise, AL and Millers Ferry, AL. Whether SPC chooses to introduce a high risk matters very little. What matters is that we get out information to everyone possible to make sure we have everyone “weather aware” this weekend.
SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY; LOW-END RISK LOCALLY… Strong to severe storms will be possible to our north across parts of northwest Alabama and north Mississippi on Friday. SPC has a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk in place for northwest Alabama and north Mississippi. A Level 4 (out of 5) risk is in place for parts of Illinois and Missouri tomorrow ahead of a major damaging wind event in those two states. Strong tornadoes will be possible in these zones along with a pronounced threat of damaging wind gusts and hail. We note SPC has included much of our local area in the low-end risk zone valid for Friday night into early Saturday morning.
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING; CLEARING SUNDAY P.M. INTO MONDAY… Isolated showers will be possible Sunday morning long after the severe weather risk comes to a close. Rain should be completely out of our local area to the east by 2PM Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 70s. We’ll be in the low 70s on Monday afternoon with full sunshine expected all day Monday and Tuesday.
BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard nothing about this severe weather threat setting up for Saturday. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live, YouTube Live, and in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I am planning to “go live” later this evening between 7:30PM and 9PM. Please join me then for the very latest information. I will have another detailed video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Constant updates will be posted this weekend in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Thursday evening. Please stay safe this weekend!
