WARM, DRY WEEKEND BUT RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEK; WATCHING TROPICS… Good news to report in that rain chances are increasing for next week. Before that, we will have nice, warm weather through the weekend. There will be a few passing clouds each day through Monday, but overall, I am expecting nice, mainly sunny skies. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with morning lows in the upper-50s and low-60s through the weekend. There is a chance this may be our last “completely quiet” weather weekend locally for awhile, thus if you have outdoor projects that need to be done, now is the time to do them.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FORECAST… Dry conditions are expected this evening for the high school football games across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Game time temperatures will start in the low-70s, falling into the mid-60s by 9PM. It will be a nice evening for the games across the region. If you are near Brewton, Alabama, come visit us at Brewton Municipal Stadium for the annual Battle of Murder Creek as T.R. Miller High School takes on W.S. Neal High School. It is one of Alabama’s most storied football rivalries.

RAIN INCREASINGLY LIKELY MIDWEEK… Confidence is increasing that a frontal boundary will approach our area from the northwest next week. This will provide the spark for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form on Wednesday and Thursday, most likely. We will need to iron out the details next week, but plan on rain at times in the middle to latter part of the upcoming week. This will be extremely beneficial rainfall, particularly considering our area is now in an advancing drought zone per the latest guidance from the U.S. Drought Monitor. It doesn’t take a Drought Monitor to see all of the dust if you’re driving on any local dirt roads. We need the rain!

TROPICS: DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 60% chance of a tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean Sea over the next several days. There is a chance this system moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico next week. Beyond that, plenty of uncertainty exists in being able to determine where this system ultimately ends up. From NHC: “A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean.”

TROPICS: DISTURBANCE NEAR PUERTO RICO… In addition to the developing tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea, a separate trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico has a low-end chance of briefly becoming a named tropical storm while moving toward Hispaniola and Cuba over the next 2-3 days. This system will likely be absorbed by the southern Caribbean disturbance (that will then be in the WESTERN Caribbean Sea) in 4-5 days.

TROPICS: SUBTROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE NEAR AZORES… An area of disturbed weather in the northern Atlantic Ocean has a 20% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm this weekend or early next week. Impacts from the developing storm will be possible in The Azores. This particular system will never be a direct concern for the continental United States.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Friday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a great weekend!

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SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS WEST ALABAMA… Isolated showers will be possible today, mainly across west Alabama. MOST of us across the region will remain dry despite the significant need for rain.

High temperatures will be in the mid-80s.

Have a nice Friday!

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A band of rain showers may impact portions of southeast MS & interior southwest AL late this evening before gradually diminishing overnight. Overnight lows look on track to range in the 60s over most areas except around 70° near the coast. #mobwx pic.twitter.com/LPSsA8CgcM

— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) November 1, 2024

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DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN GULF NEXT WEEK; LOCAL IMPACTS TBD… We will need to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean Sea over the next several days as the system moves northward. Earlier model guidance indicated the system may take more of an easterly track toward Hispaniola or Puerto Rico, but guidance today (as it often the case early on the process) has shifted to the west. This means that the odds of this system ultimately moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico have increased. While no one, and I truly mean NO ONE, can tell you if this system will develop into a named tropical storm or where it will end up, interests in Jamaica, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Gulf of Mexico region should closely monitor the progress of this developing system over the next few days.

NOVEMBER HURRICANES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DO HAPPEN… Despite the Gulf of Mexico having a high number of landfalling systems this year, we still have one more month, officially, of hurricane season. The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially end on Saturday, November 30. It would be highly uncommon for us to have hurricane issues in the month of November, but it isn’t completely unprecedented. Tropical Storm Eta affected Florida in November of 2020. Tropical Storm Ida impacted Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida in November 2009. Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida Panhandle, causing extensive damage near Port St. Joe, in late November 1985. Are hurricane issues uncommon in November? Yes. Unprecedented, no. This is why we need to monitor this developing system.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have a detailed update on the tropics in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to join me then for the latest information. Have a good night and Happy Halloween!

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