RZW EXEC – TROPICAL STORM LIKELY IN GULF THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good morning! There is a growing chance (now up to 60%) that a tropical storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Local impacts will largely be limited to heavy rain at times Sunday into Monday, based on current model guidance. Please see the detailed range scenarios below of what could happen as this tropical disturbance develops. As always, please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs or concerns. Thanks for your support! Here is the post we will debut publicly within the next hour…

60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING IN GULF THIS WEEKEND… The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the probability/chance that a tropical storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. There is now a 60% chance that a tropical storm will form near or just west of the Florida Peninsula this weekend as the tropical disturbance branded as INVEST 95L moves northwestward. There is high model agreement/confidence in the general idea that this tropical disturbance or tropical storm will move northwest toward northwest Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana in the days ahead. Unfortunately, we don’t know the specifics just yet. There could be impacts other than rain, like gusty winds at the coastline, isolated tornadoes, and coastal flooding, but we don’t have a firm grip of IF or WHEN these impacts will be possible just yet. Why? Largely because these impacts depend heavily on the ultimate strength of the system. There will be a chance of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this disturbance or tropical storm. Let’s look at a few midday Wednesday notes…

UNCERTAINTY SCENARIOS BREAKDOWN… While there is quite a bit of uncertainty about specifics concerning INVEST 95L, we’re going to try something new today to convey this information to you. Let’s look at the high-end scenario of what would happen if the system is stronger than expected, the MOST likely scenario (mid-range of the model guidance), and the low-end scenario of what would happen if the system is weaker than expected. Let me know if you like this breakdown and if it is clear and easy-to-understand.

HIGH-END SCENARIO: STRONG TROPICAL STORM… The intensity models simply do not show this system rapidly intensifying into a hurricane at this time. Good news! Instead, some of the outlier, higher intensity scenarios point to a tropical storm making landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast as a moderate tropical storm with maximum winds offshore of 50-60 mph. Under this scenario, there would be a slightly higher risk of isolated tornadoes near the immediate coastal zones NEAR and EAST of where the center of circulation makes landfall. Gusty winds would be likely at the beach zones near and east of the center. Inland impacts would largely be limited to heavy downpours of rain at times.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITH COASTAL IMPACTS… The most likely scenario of what will happen with INVEST 95L is that the system will continue to move northwest, perhaps crossing the southern part of the Florida Peninsula near Miami in a day or two then emerging over the eastern Gulf on Friday. Beyond that, the system is expected to move northwest toward the Florida Panhandle, south Alabama, and perhaps southern Mississippi and east Louisiana. Most intensity models ramp the system up to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 40-50 mph. This scenario would largely be beneficial for much of south Alabama and northwest Florida as the system would be a good rainmaker for our region. Other impacts could potentially include some coastal flooding, perhaps an isolated tornado threat depending on the strength of the system, and gusty winds at the immediate beach zones. No wind impacts inland would be expected under this forecast/scenario.

LOW-END SCENARIO: AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/DISTURBANCE… There IS still a significant chance that INVEST 95L never develops into a formal tropical storm. What could happen is the system remains sheared and weak as it moves northwest toward our area. Regardless of if formal development happens, we still would need to call for higher rain chances for Sunday into Monday. This scenario would feature scattered to numerous showers and storms with breezy conditions at the immediate coastline. Other impacts, like isolated tornadoes and coastal flooding, would probably be mitigated since the system would be weaker.

WEDNESDAY MIDDAY DISCUSSION – POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… This has not changed since the morning video update: There is growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We are also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more updates later today in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday afternoon!

WATCHING THE TROPICS – RZW EXEC UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good morning! There is a growing chance that tropical storm formation may happen in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend as a tropical area of low pressure approaches our local area from the south. While it’s too early to know specific potential impacts, there is a growing chance that our area will have heavy rain at times on Sunday into Monday because of this system. We will push this information publicly in the next hour or so.

20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND… An area of low pressure currently situated near the southeastern Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico where it could become a tropical storm this weekend. There is a growing chance that some level of local impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida, regardless of if the system develops into a formal tropical storm. We still have plenty of question marks, but models have been pretty consistent over the last day or two suggesting that an area of low pressure or tropical storm will likely make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast in the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the strength of the system and the exact track of the center of circulation IF formal tropical development happens. Let’s talk details…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… It is far too early to know if hazardous conditions will happen in coastal areas of our region, but I can tell you with growing confidence that we will have quite a bit of rain as we go into Sunday and Monday as this area of low pressure moves northwest. The latest model guidance suggests the potential exists for heavy rain at times both on Sunday and on Monday. Depending on the exact track, forward speed, and strength of this system, there could be a risk of isolated tornadoes, gusty winds near the immediate coastline, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. Please check back with me over the next few days as we monitor the evolving specific risks (or lack of risks!) as this tropical area of low pressure continues moving northwest. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app.

LOW PRESSURE NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK… The tropical disturbance that will move into the Gulf of Mexico probably WON’T develop into a tropical storm until it moves just south of or over the southern Florida Peninsula and emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions over The Bahamas are currently not favorable for this system to develop, but again, the environment over the Gulf IS slightly more favorable. Heavy rainfall will happen across parts of The Bahamas and south Florida later this week as this system approaches the Gulf.

TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… We’re also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles that both have a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor these areas of concern, but clearly, the disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico will take priority in our focus over the next few days since local impacts appear possible as we go into the early part of next week.

RZW EXEC: DORIAN 2PM UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon! I am encouraged by model data flowing in this afternoon in that there has been a consistent trend all day pointing to Hurricane Dorian remaining well to the east of our local area. We’re not completely out of the potential for danger just yet, but the data suggests we are beginning to get there. The latest run of the ECMWF/Euro model paints a bleak picture for basically all of the Florida Peninsula from Miami northward to Gainesville. The American-based GFS model has trended farther south, followed by a similar sharp, right, northerly turn like the Euro. While this is bad news for our friends in the Florida Peninsula, it’s GOOD news for Alabama and northwest Florida! Nearly all major weather models keep the core of Dorian well to the east of our local area as of 2PM today. Model data can and will change, but the trend for our area over the last 12-18 hours has been in the right direction. Below are some of the paragraphs I’ll debut publicly around 4:30PM. My next live video update will happen at 8PM tonight. Hope you’ll join us for that! As always, let me know if you have any specific questions, concerns, or decision support needs. Below is an image capture of the ECMWF/Euro model valid at 7AM CDT on Friday.

DORIAN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN; COULD BE CAT. 4 OR 5 EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has revised the intensity forecast of Hurricane even higher today, suggesting that the system may be a dangerous category 4 hurricane at the time of a potential landfall along the Florida Peninsula early next week. Dorian continues to organize in a way that is supportive of potentially extreme impacts across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Also of note, the official forecast has slowed somewhat, indicating Dorian may significant slow its forward speed as it approaches Florida. This could allow for more intensification prior to landfall. We are certainly not “out of the woods” just yet in south Alabama or northwest Florida, but the model data over the last 6-12 hours has been encouraging. The latest run of the reliable ECMWF/Euro model is in, essentially showing Dorian significantly affecting the Florida Peninsula before racing northward. Most models show a sharp, right, northerly turn before, at, or shortly after landfall in the Florida Peninsula. If you missed the text discussion this morning, I’ve modified the paragraphs below slightly to add the latest updates.

THURSDAY EARLY EVENING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL LOCAL (SOUTH AL & NW FL) IMPACTS FROM DORIAN… The trends early this evening are encouraging for Alabama and northwest Florida, with most weather models continuing to keep Dorian well to the east of our local area. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to be able to give anything close to an “all clear” just yet. IF model trends continue to show a sharp, right, northerly turn when or shortly after Dorian reaches Florida, we can begin to rule out local impacts from the system. We are NOT there yet! It is critical that we all remain diligent and closely monitor the progress of this hurricane as it continues to strengthen and move northwest. Impacts in the Florida Peninsula have the potential to be extensive. Beyond that, it’s impossible to know if or when other areas will have major impacts. We will get another run of the ECMWF/Euro model overnight with more runs of the GFS intermittently in the coming hours.

EXTREME HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!

RZW EXEC: DORIAN UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday afternoon! Unfortunately, we just don’t have a concrete answer yet on whether Hurricane Dorian will impact south Alabama or northwest Florida. After some encouraging model runs over the last 24 hours, the latest runs of the models have been totally discouraging with direct local impacts indicated. The good news is this scenario can and will change in the coming hours as we continue to get more data in on this increasingly dangerous hurricane. Regardless of if local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida occur, confidence continues to grow that the Florida Peninsula will endure direct impacts from a major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Below you’ll see two paragraphs we will debut later this evening followed by a recap of my midday public post. As always, please let me know if you have specific questions, concerns, or decision support needs. The graphic below will debut publicly around 4PM.

HURRICANE DORIAN LIKELY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND; GULF IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN… Hurricane Dorian continues to gain strength this evening as it emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Model trends over the last 6-8 hours have been discouraging for our local area, to say the least, although as I often caution, we need to focus on the overall trends and not individual model runs. The Florida Peninsula has a very high chance of having direct impacts from Dorian when the system will very likely be a major hurricane this weekend into Monday. Beyond that, we still do not have a firm grasp of where Dorian ends up.

SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA: POTENTIAL DORIAN IMPACTS DISCUSSION… The big takeaway as far as potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains that we still do not know whether direct local impacts from Dorian will happen, although the latest model runs point to that being still in the realm of possibilities. Earlier today, I mentioned that the Euro/ECMWF model had featured encouraging trends showing the system remaining to the east of our area, cautioning that further model changes were likely. Indeed, those changes happened. The latest run (12Z) of the Euro/ECMWF model shows a substantial (perhaps category 2 or 3) hurricane slamming into south Florida followed by an emergence over the southern Gulf of Mexico then a rapid turn to the northwest with a potential landfall as a major hurricane in northwest Florida late next week. That is ONE idea from ONE run of ONE model, but I type that out to say: We are, by NO means, “out of the woods” just yet. It’s important to comparatively note that the GFS and Canadian models show a much different scenario, with Dorian making a Florida Peninsula landfall much farther north then very slowly weakening in the days that follow with little to no local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Again, the big headline here is: Please keep checking back with me for forecast updates in the days ahead. The situation is fluid and evolving rapidly.

DORIAN CURRENT INFO… Hurricane Dorian is packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 1PM CDT, the center of Dorian was located at 18.3N and 65.0W. Minimum central pressure is down to 997 millibars, indicating strengthening is happening. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. We note the center is directly over St. Croix and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

CENTER OF DORIAN MISSES PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY… 2-3 days ago, there was some hope that the core of Dorian would be disrupted by the high, rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Yesterday, there was hope that Dorian would be somewhat disrupted by the hills and mountains of Puerto Rico. Today, it is clear that the center of Dorian will miss the land areas to the east and have an unhindered path to strengthening over the next 24-72 hours. Definitely not the scenario that anyone wanted. Land interaction will have very little to no effect on the developing storm. Dorian will continue to emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in the next 12 hours as it continues moving to the northwest.

WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… A Hurricane Warning continues for all of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Vieques & Culebra. Puerto Rico continues to be under a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning. Hurricane Watches will be needed for the Turks & Caicos islands and parts of The Bahamas later this evening or on Thursday. Hurricane Watches will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday or Saturday morning.

MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now states that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a category 3, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts!

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

DORIAN LIKELY TO IMPACT FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday afternoon to each of you. Tropical Storm Dorian is moving northwest in the eastern Caribbean Sea. There is high confidence in the track forecast, as far as where Dorian is headed. There is *VERY* low confidence in the intensity forecast, as far as just how strong or how weak Dorian will be in 3-5 days. Basically, the National Hurricane Center is “splitting the difference” between the dynamical model output and intensity model guidance. The dynamical models show a much weaker system moving into the Florida Peninsula this weekend. The intensity guidance shows a category 1, 2, or 3 hurricane moving into the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Obviously the impacts in those two scenarios are quite different. We will have a much better grasp about the future intensity of Dorian after the system moves by Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA… It is far too early to know IF Dorian will cause local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida. At the moment, based on the latest model data, it seems like any impacts will remain to the east of our local area, but that is ONE idea subject to change over the next few days. We all need to closely monitor this system carefully in the days ahead.

Let me know if you have any questions, concerns, or decision support needs. Have a great Tuesday evening!